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[rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required

Mwendwa Kivuva Kivuva at
Fri Jan 29 08:04:52 UTC 2016

In reference to the Policy authored by Michuki et-al on reserving a
small v4 for IXPs, why not just write a new policy to "create a
smaller IPv6 transition pool using the IANA returned space AfriNIC
will receive over subsequent months"


On 29/01/2016, Frank Habicht <geier at> wrote:
> Hi all,
> My first thought about this was:
> We (on this list, but not everyone) have seen the iceberg; we can adjust
> course but only change the time of impact slightly; should we rearrange
> the deck chairs?
> However, things can change.   ;-)
> I'm in favour of having a transfer policy.
> I don't see why it should only get into effect when one or another
> soft-landing policy phase kicks in. Why not as soon as possible?
> If there are two consenting adul.... I mean
> Internet-numbering-resource-holders, then fine.
> I'm in favour of more restricting allocations during soft landing.
> maybe
> 1. any organisation (member) can only get an allocation/assignment if
>    they didn't get one for the previous 12 months
>    (minimum time distance, number can be adjusted)
> or
> 2. any organisation (member) can only once get an allocation/assignment
> for phase 1, I think any of these 2 options is fine,
> for phase 2, I prefer option 2.
> I'm happy to reduce the "/13" in  3.5.1) EXHAUSTION PHASE 1
> to be smaller. In the range /16 - /18 (to be fixed during discussion)
> Two concerns:
> a) we're spending effort for a technology on life support
>    (actually the effort is the life support)
>    We should spend as much effort for _____________
> b) I haven't checked Andrew's scary timeline predictions.
>    I'm unsure policy can make it that quickly.
>    Just look at the success rate of recent policies, number of meetings
>    for discussing the same policy. I'm also aware of policies that are
>    not implemented more than half a year after the successful policy
>    discussion in the meeting...
>    At the very least it will need a change of culture.
>    so that any input will need to be shared on email before the policy
>    meeting. In order that no new surprising arguments for wording,
>    parameters, bike-shed colours are coming up only at the meeting.
>    Any questions about the policy can be shared on email and doesn't
>    need to wait for the meeting .... etc....
> Greetings,
> Frank
> On 1/28/2016 6:25 PM, Andrew Alston wrote:
>> Hi All,
>> So, I was analysing some of the latest publicly available numbers on
>> AfriNIC space and allocations.  What follows is a summary of that
>> analysis, and then some points that need to be discussed.
>> AFRINIC as of the last report I have seen had 30.6 million addresses
>> still available (This may have dropped since that figure came out).
>> AFRINIC allocated 16.9 million addresses last year.
>> The allocation rates for 2015 are up 35% from 2014, and in 2015 and 2014
>> combined we allocated a total of 29.4 million addresses.  This is
>> approximately double what was allocated in 2012 and 2013 combined.
>> Based on a 35% increase in the rate of allocation from 2015, and there
>> is little reason to doubt this will happen, we will be in soft landing
>> in July of this year approximately.
>> Due to the fact that the current soft landing policy still allows
>> extremely large allocations, this will not significantly slow down the
>> allocation rates, and if anything, moving into soft landing may well
>> spur more people into action and applications, which could actually
>> INCREASE the rate of allocation.  Should the allocation rate remain
>> unchanged, Africa is out of space by late March/Beginning April 2017.
>> Now, things to consider.
>> A.) The soft landing policy ideally needs to be changed to drastically
>> tighten the allocations in the soft landing phases, and if we plan to do
>> this, we have ONE chance to get it right, and that’s in Gaborone.  If we
>> fail to pass a modification to that policy at the Gaborone meeting later
>> this year, there will be no more time left to do anything to prevent
>> total depletion.
>> B.) Total depletion is coming, and nothing can stop it, and we no longer
>> have years of IP space left in the AfriNIC pool.  This means that
>> without a transfer policy of some form of another, be it intra-RIR or
>> inter-RIR, anyone who does not get space within this period, will not be
>> able to get space within the AfriNIC region, at all.  (Unless they go
>> and join out of region RIR’s and transfer to the entities they register
>> in those out of region RIRs, but it will be an entirely off continent
>> process).
>> So, we can continue to sit and argue with our heads in the sand, or we
>> can realise, we have one more policy meeting left before soft landing,
>> and possibly one more meeting after that before total depletion with the
>> current policies.  We either leave all politics that normally is so
>> pervasive in the discussions behind and make some meaningful strides
>> towards serious policy change, or we fully accept that the end of IPv4
>> is here and we are going over the cliff, like it or not.  There are no
>> other options.
>> So, lets discuss, how do we deal with what is coming.  Let me also
>> state, the argument that was made in Pointe Noir that some how AfriNIC
>> will save us from depletion is completely inaccurate.  AfriNIC as an
>> organisation cannot act outside of the auspicious of policy, and that
>> means the community as a whole, has to work together if they want
>> change, or accept that together we run of out space and do whatever
>> needs to be done after that day.
>> Written entirely in my personal capacity.
>> Andrew Alston
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Mwendwa Kivuva, Nairobi, Kenya

The best athletes never started as the best athletes.
"You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take." - Wayne Gretzky.
I will persist until I succeed - Og Mandino.

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