[AfriNIC-rpd] What is our take on the central pool IPv4 exhaustion?

[Badru Ntege]

> 
> The assertion that IPv6 transition will take another fifteen years is
> completely ludicrous hyperbole and based on no fact. Your attitude
> merely prolongs the "chicken and egg" problem. The facts are clear;
> IPv4 is running out, IPv6 is the sustainable solution, _you_ want it
> as soon as possible. Do your self a favor and join an ARIN list and
> follow the discussions there. THEY are gearing for definite switch
> dates, APNIC already have done this - where are we? More importantly
> where are _you_ and where is your business? If you don't keep up your
> business certainly won't be with those who did keep up.
> 
> As for dual stacked networks, these are a transition mechanism in
> order for migrations to take place in a seamless and coordinated way.
> Implementing or working on IPv6 systems without a dual stack would be
> impossibly unfeasible. They are not an end in their own or a reason
> anyone should defer their implementation of IPv6.
> 
> --
> Colin Alston <colin at thusa.co.za>     ______
 
[Badru Ntege] 

I think we all know that the future network will definitely be a V6 network
and work has been going on for quite some time.  V6 has and will continue to
take a key part of all AfriNIC meetings. However we cannot escape reality
that we are in Africa and not the US or Europe.   The fact that our economic
conditions in the rest of the continent are far different from those of the
US and Europe Let alone south Africa.   The fact that as Richard stated
earlier and echoed by a few others that half our networks run on post end of
life cisco equipement which is not V6 ready.  

So as much as the logical thing to do today is to advocate for an immediate
switch we have to understand that it will take a few years for propagation
to happen and thus we will have to maintain and in some instances grow our
V4 networks on the continent in order not to disenfranchise those who cannot
afford to switch today.  This will definitely create a new problem which we
need to put our heads together to now avoid what might come to be called the
"IP divide" as opposed to the much used "digital divide".

For those who have not seen these here are some interesting stats.

IPV4 allocations per RIR between January 1999 and March 2007

AfriNIC, 1%
APNIC, 32%
ARIN, 31%
LACNIC, 4%
RIPE NCC, 32%

IPV6 Allocations by RIR  between January 1999 and March 2007


AfriNIC, 2%
APNIC, 23%
ARIN, 18%
LACNIC, 7%
RIPE NCC, 50%

So on V6 you will see that we are not doing badly which reflects on the
training and outreach that AfriNIC has been doing over the years.

One of the big debates then is how do we divide out the remaining pool of
V4??  There's a school of thought that says we divide it equally among the
five RIR's.  My argument at the moment until convinced otherwise is how we
define equal??.  1% of the current allocation does not co-relate to equal
when you look at the stats and this might be attributed to our late entry
into becoming an RIR and also to our historical economic challenges which I
do believe that as a continent are behind us.  

So to move forward we need to propose a two pronged approach which ensures
sustainability of growth through affordable entry platforms (legacy v4) and
aggressive transition to V6 to avoid our historical habits of arriving last
to the table and then try to claim our share of the pie which has already
been consumed. (I hasten to add that this is what I'm proposing by redefine
equal distribution to have a weighting towards LACNIC and AfriNIC making
sure that we get a fare share of the V4 pie)

Regards

Badru