[rpd] Questions about IP Allocation rate

[Andrew Alston]

Just an update here,

I've now written some (admittedly ugly) code to parse the full bgp table
for announced routes in such a way that it can be used for high speed
comparison against a list of supplied "reserved" ranges to ensure that that
none of these are appearing in the DFZ - and if they are what ASN's are
originating the data.  As soon as AfriNIC supplies the full list of
reserved ranges I will be able to supply a list of any address space
currently showing up that shouldn't be if any.

If AfriNIC were to publish the full list of reserved ranges somewhere that
it could be easily fetched - it would be a simple thing to run this code
against a BGP feed once a day against an updated reserved list and then
send an automated alert should reserved ranges be showing up in the BGP
table, along with who is announcing these routes.  I think this would be a
worthwhile exercise to prevent any hijacking or theft of space.

(Note the code I used parses specifically against a dump of the BGP table
as taken from a Juniper router so its rather junos specific, and of course
needs the further code added to do the comparison against reserved space.
Once AfriNIC releases the full list of reserved ranges or gives an
indication where such a list can be downloaded as it is updated (which
would be ideal) I will finalize the code to do the comparison and would be
happy to release it publically)

Thanks

Andrew


On Tue, Oct 14, 2025 at 4:45 PM Andrew Alston <aa at alstonnetworks.net> wrote:

> Can you also please supply the ranges so that a BGP table audit can be
> done to ensure that these resources are indeed not being used
> inappropriately or illegally please.
>
> Andrew
>
> On Tue, 14 Oct 2025 at 16:27, Madhvi Gokool via RPD <rpd at afrinic.net>
> wrote:
>
>> Dear Andrew
>>
>> The status 'Reserved' is provided to the following cases :-
>>
>> a) Resources that are reserved according to ratified and implemented
>> policies(one /12 IPv4 under the soft landing policy and 2 x 16’s IPv4
>> prefixes  and small ASNs for IXPs)
>>
>> b) Resources that have been reclaimed from organisations during the
>> closure exercises and quarantined
>>
>> c) Resources that have been voluntarily returned  by resource members
>> and quarantined
>>
>> Quarantined resources in the case of b) and c) above are subject to a
>> cleanup process to ensure sanity before they are added to the available
>> pool of resources.
>>
>> d) Resources that have been deregistered from the AFRINIC whois database
>> after the investigation of misappropriated resources were also quarantined.
>>
>> We will produce a breakdown of these reservations by tomorrow.
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> Madhvi
>>
>>
>> On 14/10/2025 13:11, Andrew Alston wrote:
>>
>> Hi Madhvi,
>>
>> I'm a little confused by the stats on that page.  According to the CPM
>> AfriNIC currently reserves as a /16 for IXP space and a /12 under soft
>> landing.  This accounts for a total of 1,114,112 addresses.
>>
>> The stats page shows total reservations of 17509 /24s - which amounts to
>> roughly a /10 and another /14 in reserved space.  This is more than 4 times
>> the amount of reserved space that I can account for in the CPM - so what is
>> the rest of it and what am I missing here?
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>> Andrew
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Oct 14, 2025 at 11:03 AM Madhvi Gokool via RPD <rpd at afrinic.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Dear Sir
>>>
>>> AFRINIC publishes statistics here - https://stats.afrinic.net
>>>
>>> The graph titled “Distribution of IPv4 (/24) per year“ on the page Statistics
>>> Portal <https://stats.afrinic.net/ipv4/> can be referenced for yearly
>>> distribution, In addition, The ‘Filter by date Range’ can be used to get
>>> granular statistics for the IPv4 allocations.
>>>
>>> We also wish to inform you that while the page is accessible on Firefox
>>> and Safari browsers, we have noticed an erratic behaviour when accessed via
>>> Chrome browser. We are investigating this erratic behaviour at the moment.
>>>
>>> Kind Regards
>>>
>>> Madhvi Gokool
>>>
>>> AFRINIC Policy Liaison
>>>
>>>
>>> On 13/10/2025 18:43, Andrew Alston wrote:
>>>
>>> Hi All,
>>>
>>> I was wondering if there were updated statistics for the amount of space
>>> allocated in the last 3 years.  In addition to this information regarding
>>> exactly how much free space is still available in the IPv4 unallocated pool
>>> (excluding reservations)
>>>
>>> I ask this because depending on the allocation rate - we may wish to
>>> consider revising the soft-landing policy that currently reserves a /12
>>> worth of ipv4 space for "future uses, as yet unforeseen".
>>>
>>> I point out that the soft landing policy was ratified in 2011, and if we
>>> still, after 14 years, have not been able to articulate a clear reason for
>>> such a large reservation, I think it's time we look at most, if not all, of
>>> that /12 back into the main unallocated pool that can be allocated for
>>> African resource holders that actually need it.
>>>
>>> Amongst other reasons, sitting with unallocated, unannounced, reserved
>>> space like this leaves the space vulnerable to hijacking and malicious use
>>> or even potential theft.
>>>
>>> Thanks
>>>
>>> Andrew
>>>
>>>
>>>
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