[rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!

[Noah]

On Fri, Jun 28, 2019 at 10:04 PM Lee Howard <lee.howard at retevia.net> wrote:

>
> On 6/28/19 2:06 PM, Noah wrote:
>
> Howard,
>
> On Fri, Jun 28, 2019 at 8:40 PM Lee Howard <lee.howard at retevia.net> wrote:
>
>>
>> Based on scarcity, Africa has the greater need for addresses. Economists
>> describe markets as a way to distribute resources according to their best
>> and highest use. Since that's hard to quantify, they use money as a metric
>> for best and highest use. Africa has the greatest need, and addresses there
>> would serve better (potentially more people) than elsewhere.
>>
> +1 and I dont dispute that. We need more.
>
>> If the only supply is within the region, the prices will be much higher
>> than outside the region. If in a year IPv4 addresses are US$30 each, they
>> could be US$50 each in Africa, which makes them unaffordable for many
>> companies. Prices would be the same everywhere if all regions allowed
>> inter-RIR transfers. But there still isn't enough supply.
>>
> Another school of thought would argue that since Africa is the only place
> with the most demand for IPv4 since places like ARIN dont need them, then
> brokers like yourself would have Africa as the only place to supply
> available IPv4 space and we will dictate the IPv4 price else we deploy
> IPv6. Simple as that.
>
> I didn't say "places like ARIN don't need them." I said there are only
> "0.148 addresses per person" outside of Africa. That seems like a great
> need, but not as great as Africa.
>
Hey Lee,

You are certainly correct and I tend to agree though what I would rather
see is that more IPv4 flow into Africa since we are still building the
internet here and we need more indeed.


> By the way, I am not a broker and don't work for a broker. I have never
> bought or sold IPv4 addresses. I have advised brokers, buyers, and sellers,
> and I've studied the market a lot. My business is IPv6 to IPv4 translation:
> I want everybody to deploy IPv6 so we can reduce or eliminate the need for
> IPv4.
>
> Brokers don't dictate price: they match buyers and sellers, who can
> negotiate price. There are many brokers, and sellers, and buyers--no
> monopoly.
>

Thanks for the clarifications and my sincere apologies for mistaking you
for a broker :-).


>
>> A company can save money on IPv4 addresses and CGN by deploying IPv6. But
>> it's too late to deploy IPv6 before Afrinic runs out of addresses.
>> Addresses will run out, and the market will not be able to satisfy the need
>> for addresses.
>>
> Since I am involved in real network builds, the idea that its too later to
> deploy IPv6 is absurd. We are deploying it and and we see a significant
> growth in traffic in continent.
>
> I built one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world. It took use four
> years to get our first customers on IPv6, and another one or two to have
> IPv6 available to everyone on the network. I hope that we found and
> eliminated bugs, and that vendors have IPv6 already built into their
> products.
>
Things have changed since then and there has been a lot of fixes with
vendors improving their software stacks and as such, I doubt it would take
that long. We also have some case studies in place today for folks to
quickly adapt.

> But I think that anyone who did not start their IPv6 program a year ago
> will not finish before Afrinic runs out.
>

Maybe, maybe not as it depends on the network I guess.

It sounds like you have made a lot of progress on your IPv6 program, and I
> congratulate you. It is impossible to see until customers start using it,
> and right now Tanzania is at 0% IPv6 deployment (
> https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/TZ).
>

So the email address I use on rpd-mailing-list tends to be confusing
sometime since I prefer to use my personal email from a .tz domain here but
when I was talking about IPv6 deployments, I was basically referring to the
ones I have been involved with at AS37100 where I work and we are seeing
significant growth in IPv6 traffic as a major transit provider and NSP in
the continent across the board.


> ISPs and mobile carriers everywhere in Africa will have to deploy CGN, and
>> at higher density than elsewhere in the world. The cost for businesses to
>> connect will be much higher, since they need inbound access and therefore
>> unique IPv4 addresses. African Internet deployment will stall, all because
>> IPv6 has not been deployed and there is no way to get more IPv4 addresses.
>>
>
> Wrong. SAFARICOM in Kenya will tell you otherwise and other Telecom are
> currently deploying IPv6 in the continent and we have such plans underway
> and this will change sooner than you think/assume.
>
> Excellent! I do see good news from SAFARICOM:
> https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/KE
>
> I'm really happy to hear good IPv6 news, and I have highest praise for
> Afrinic's IPv6 training and IPv6 helpdesk.
>

Yes a lot is continuing to happen and we are pushing at a local level and
we hope to see more traction over the next couple of months and year since
we are aggressively forming IPv6 task-forces locally to be the think-tanks
for pushing more IPv6 adoptions.

I am still concerned that not enough Africans will have IPv6 in time for
> IPv4 scarcity to be no problem. I think you agree, since you are concerned
> that IPv4 addresses will be needed in Africa.
>

I am not really concerned because we have started to aggressively push for
IPv6 adoption and we see some traction both from an ISP and IXP's stand
point. As for IPv4 needs, we will need more and we are happy to have a
one-direction policy that would allow for more space to flow in.


>
>
> Are those the kind of numbers you were looking for?
>>
> I really don't mean to advocate strongly for this policy. I don't feel
> it's appropriate for me to do so. You had asked for data, and I provided
> some that I thought might help. I did offer my opinion more strongly than I
> usually do on this list, because I think IPv6 is better, cheaper, and
> faster than IPv4 + CGN.
>
> Also, I agree with your concern: there is risk that addresses will leave
> the region. There is also risk that there will not be enough addresses. How
> do we limit the first risk (too many addresses leaving Africa), so we can
> mitigate the second risk (not having enough addresses)?
>
> Lee
>
>
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