[rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!

Tue Jun 18 15:08:57 UTC 2019

This is interesting.

My logic goes like this:

1. Afrinic has a finite number of IPv4 addresses to allocate/assign.

2. Afrinic will run out of those addresses next year.

3. Once Afrinic runs out, any network needing more IPv4 addresses not be 
able to get them from Afrinic.

4. Networks needing more addresses will have choices:

   4a. Stop growing.

   4b. Use (carrier-grade) NAT. Even NAT requires some IPv4 addresses.

   4c. Try to find addresses inside Africa that are for sale.

Evaluating those options:

4a is bad for the region.

4b is complicated. It means buying more hardware, updating some systems. 
Some things don't work well with NAT. If you can deploy IPv6 and use 
NAT64, 464xlat, MAP-T or MAP-E, you reduce that cost, but it's still 
more than you spend now.

4c could get very expensive. Demand for IPv4 addresses has been around 
25,000 /24s per year (with some much higher peaks) since Afrinic was 
founded.[1] The Afrinic region has about seven /8s in total.[2] If 
demand  continues, then more than 6M of those 112M addresses would have 
to be traded every year, somewhere between 1/2% - 1%.

The question then is whether you think there are more underutilized IPv4 
addresses in the U.S. or in Africa. Assuming a perfect market:

    If Africa is more efficient, and Afrinic's transfer policy is only
    within the region, then the few unused IPv4 addresses will sell for
    a higher price than addresses elsewhere.[3]

    If Africa is less efficient and Afrinic's transfer policy is only
    within the region, then unused addresses will be cheaper than elsewhere.

    If Africa is more efficient and Afrinic has an inter-regional
    transfer policy, addresses will be valued more highly in Africa and
    addresses will come in.

    If Africa is less efficient that the rest of the world and Afrinic
    has an inter-regional transfer policy, buyers in other countries
    will buy addresses from Africa.

My guess is that addresses in Africa are pretty efficiently utilized, 
and therefore people in Africa will have a higher need for addresses 
than people elsewhere, and therefore a) prices will rise, and b) 
addresses will tend to flow in to Africa rather than out.

Lee

[1] https://afrinic.net/stats/ipv4

[2] https://www.nro.net/wp-content/uploads/NRO-Statistics-2019-Q1.pdf

[3] https://www.retevia.net/address-pricing-2019-and-beyond/ easily $30 
per address next year, maybe much higher

On 6/18/19 8:18 AM, Pascal ANDRIANISA wrote:
> Thank you Jordi
> if in the opposite case the remaining resources at AFRINIC will be transferred to other RIRs. It is true that I am not against but I do not agree that the current resources insufficient according to the information I received since AFRINIC-29 will be transferred to other RIR.
> If you can guarantee this balance of resources transfer I think it will be logical for AFRINIC. Unlike so if AFRINIC has a lot of resources it will be good for the community.
>
> Regards,
>
> Pascal Heriliva ANDRIANISA
> Webmaster i RENALA
> R esearch and E ducation N etwork for A cademic and L earning A ctivities - [ http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ | http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ ]
> Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana
> GSM :+261 (0) 32 46 680 29 | +261 (0) 34 30 680 29
>
> ----- Mail original -----
> De: "rpd" <rpd at afrinic.net>
> À: "rpd" <rpd at afrinic.net>
> Envoyé: Mardi 18 Juin 2019 14:55:02
> Objet: Re: [rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!
>
> Hi Pascal,
>
> Precisely what you said is the argument in favor of this policy proposal, not against.
>
> AFRINIC don't have enough resources. The only way to receive resources is a policy that allows that other regions that are "giving up" resources, can get them.
>
> This is the case for LACNIC (the same policy proposal reached consensus in the last meeting and yesterday the consensus decision was handed out to the board for the final ratification), and for AFRINIC.
>
> AFRINIC must have an equivalent policy proposal to the ones that exist in the other regions, otherwise, you will not get sufficient resources for the continued implementation of IPv4 in the region and this will also be a barrier for the IPv6 deployment.
>
> Regards,
> Jordi
> @jordipalet
>   
>   
>
> El 18/6/19 10:48, "Pascal ANDRIANISA" <pascal at irenala.edu.mg> escribió:
>
>      Hi Jordi,
>      I read the policy proposal for IPV4 Inter-RIR Transfert.
>      The article => https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-d1#proposal
>        I think this is not the benefit of AFRINIC as resources are currently insufficient for AFRINIC.
>      Otherwise it is necessary to balance the transfers between RIR because at least the number of resources is limited to sending to other RIRs.
>      
>      I do not support this policy for this reason, The AFRINIC's resources are not enough for AFRICA, why transfer them elsewhere ....
>      
>      Pascal Heriliva ANDRIANISA
>      Webmaster i RENALA
>      R esearch and E ducation N etwork for A cademic and L earning A ctivities - [ http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ | http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ ]
>      Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana
>      GSM :+261 (0) 32 46 680 29 | +261 (0) 34 30 680 29
>      
>      ----- Mail original -----
>      De: "rpd" <rpd at afrinic.net>
>      À: "rpd" <rpd at afrinic.net>
>      Envoyé: Samedi 15 Juin 2019 13:23:23
>      Objet: [rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!
>      
>      Hi all,
>      
>      I wonder if anyone has inputs on the policy proposals for IPv4 Inter-RIR transfers.
>      
>      https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-001-d1
>      
>      and
>      
>      https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-d1
>      
>      I will be presenting both of them together on Wednesday 19th. If you're not in Kampala, make sure to participate remotely (https://www.internetsummit.africa/en/participate-remotely), so we can resolve any doubts on the spot.
>      
>      This is a key issue for AFRINIC, which now is the *only* RIR not allowing those transfers.
>      
>      AFRINIC is soon (probably around end of this year) entering in exhaustion phase 2, so it will become more and more difficult to obtain IPv4. If transfers from other regions aren't allowed, this will be an added difficulty for the Internet growth in the region, and increase the difficulties for the continued IPv6 deployment.
>      
>      The region needs this policy *now*, because the implementation requires several months as there is a need to coordinate with the systems of the other RIRs, in order to ensure a transparent transfers process.
>      
>      So, what is your opinion?
>       
>      Regards,
>      Jordi
>      @jordipalet
>       
>       
>      
>      
>      
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