[rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required

Tue Feb 2 13:20:32 UTC 2016

**Wearing NO Hats**

Markets are quite effective at moving resources from where they are not
needed to where they are more highly needed/demanded. This community has
always been against a transfer policy because of the perception (correct or
incorrect) that a transfer policy opens the way for legal plundering of
AFRINIC resources. What policy requirements should be considered to allay
that fear ?

On 29 January 2016 at 22:06, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:

>
> On Jan 29, 2016, at 08:23 , Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com>
> wrote:
>
> Hi Janvier,
>
> The term secondary market has become commonly used globally.  Transfer
> policies are specific to each RIR though, and while the RIR’s other than
> AfriNIC each have one (or are developing one), they do differ in certain
> areas.  (Specifically, to my knowledge RIPE has largely abandoned needs
> based justification, ARIN has not yet done this, but it is in the works)
>
>
> Actually RIPE (sort of) restored needs based justification to their
> transfer policy. They did it in the least useful way possible, but it was
> just enough lip service to meet the so-called compatibility test in the
> ARIN policy for inter-RIR transfers.
>
> While there have been and continue to be policy proposals in the ARIN
> region aimed at converting the IPv4 registry from a registry into an
> auction house, none have succeeded so far, so I would say that claims that
> abandoning needs based justification in the ARIN region is “in the works”
> are exaggerated at best.
>
> APNIC also restored needs based justification to their transfer policy
> some time ago.
>
> As such, I’m not really concerned about using the term in a policy within
> AfriNIC.
>
> Searching for the term, I see the same term used in APNIC, RIPE, the
> international media, and various other places.
>
>
> The term secondary market is fine, but probably doesn’t really belong in
> the policy text.
>
> Further, this would not be a global policy, it would be an AfriNIC policy.
> There is no global policy and no need for a global policy regarding
> transfers.
> Global policies are for things that control interactions between
> IANA<->RIRs.
>
> This policy would work in cooperation with existing policies at other RIRs
> each of which is a local policy to the specific RIR.
>
> The way the others are currently set up (APNIC, RIPE, ARIN) is that the
> receiving RIR transfer policy is controlling for qualifying the recipient
> and the sending RIR transfer policy is controlling for qualifying the
> donor. The transfer is effected when the respective RIRs agree with each
> other that the donor and recipient have met their respective qualifications.
>
> Now, the can of worms here is that I believe a compatible policy should
> have to be bidirectional. This would give AfriNIC access to the world’s
> secondary market, but it would also enable the transfer of addresses out of
> the AfriNIC region. Under the circumstances, I think this community should
> think long and hard about whether that is a desirable outcome.
>
> The rest of the world has openly acknowledged that a secondary market
> exists, and has largely embraced it, for the good of all concerned, we now
> need to do the same thing, or get hurt in the process.  We have to be in
> a position to get space after AfriNIC runs out, either from international
> sellers or from other African entities that choose to enter the market as
> sellers.  We cannot end up in a situation where it is impossible to get new
> space as African companies, and that is where we are heading without such a
> policy.  (Well, they will still be able to partake as buyers, but they will
> be forced to go and take membership of another RIR and register the space
> internationally, which kinda defeats the point of an African RIR, since it
> will result in a flood of offshore entities and money flowing off the
> continent if we force that route by not having a transfer policy).
>
>
> These are all valid points and yet I can’t help but wonder given the
> relative economies between the regions how much space would flow into
> Africa vs. out.
>
> I have no dog in this fight, so I’m not opposed to the proposal, nor am I
> in favor. However, I do want the community to weigh all of the aspects of
> this action, including the potential benefits and the possible problems
> that can result prior to making a decision.
>
> I would also strongly encourage the community not to personify the
> argument. I genuinely believe that each person is trying to move AfriNIC in
> what they see as the best direction for the community at large and I think
> everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt on that even if we do not agree
> with their vision. This community includes many diverse perspectives and
> good people can in good faith com to different conclusions when presented
> with the same circumstances. It is easy to determine who had the best
> vision in hindsight, but when looking forward, we are deprived of this
> benefit.
>
> Owen
>
>
>
> Andrew
>
> From: "jnoulaye at yahoo.fr" <jnoulaye at yahoo.fr>
> Reply-To: "jnoulaye at yahoo.fr" <jnoulaye at yahoo.fr>
> Date: Friday, 29 January 2016 at 7:03 PM
> To: Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com>, McTim <
> dogwallah at gmail.com>, "rpd at afrinic.net" <rpd at afrinic.net>
> Subject: Re: [rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *De :* Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com>
> I am NOT proposing a transfer policy from RIR to RIR, I am proposing a
> transfer policy to allow us access to the secondary markets of the world in
> both directions.
>
> Andrew, I think the concept sounds good but the word "secondary market" is
>  welcome  into a global policy ?
>
> Janvier Ngnoulaye
>
> From: McTim <dogwallah at gmail.com>
> Date: Friday, 29 January 2016 at 4:17 PM
> To: "rpd at afrinic.net" <rpd at afrinic.net>
> Subject: Re: [rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required
>
> Hi,
>
> Where would African LIRs transfer from if the rest of the world depletes
> before us (as is the case).
>
> Is the intent of a transfer policy the ability to transfer out?  If not, I
> don't think I would be in favor.
>
> I would be happy to support a modification to Soft Landing to restrict
> size/number of allocations.
>
> I think we can get it done quickly if we all work together in the spirit
> of cooperation that brought AFRINIC into being in the first place.
>
> AFRINIC en avant!
>
> McTim
>
> On Fri, Jan 29, 2016 at 4:59 AM, Andrew Alston <
> Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com> wrote:
>
> I’m not convinced there will be much space coming via that route.
>
> With the transfer markets open all over the world other than in Africa,
> who is going to return space to IANA for them to give to AfriNIC when they
> can sell it?
>
> Andrew Alston
> Group Head of IP Strategy
>
>
> Sameer business Park, Block A, Mombasa Road. Nairobi, Kenya
>
> T: +254 205000000 -  M: +254 733 2222 04 - E:
> andrew.alston at liquidtelecom.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On 29/01/2016, 11:04 AM, "Mwendwa Kivuva" <Kivuva at transworldafrica.com>
> wrote:
>
> >In reference to the Policy authored by Michuki et-al on reserving a
> >small v4 for IXPs, why not just write a new policy to "create a
> >smaller IPv6 transition pool using the IANA returned space AfriNIC
> >will receive over subsequent months"
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >On 29/01/2016, Frank Habicht <geier at geier.ne.tz> wrote:
> >> Hi all,
> >>
> >> My first thought about this was:
> >> We (on this list, but not everyone) have seen the iceberg; we can adjust
> >> course but only change the time of impact slightly; should we rearrange
> >> the deck chairs?
> >>
> >> However, things can change.   ;-)
> >>
> >> I'm in favour of having a transfer policy.
> >> I don't see why it should only get into effect when one or another
> >> soft-landing policy phase kicks in. Why not as soon as possible?
> >> If there are two consenting adul.... I mean
> >> Internet-numbering-resource-holders, then fine.
> >>
> >> I'm in favour of more restricting allocations during soft landing.
> >> maybe
> >> 1. any organisation (member) can only get an allocation/assignment if
> >>    they didn't get one for the previous 12 months
> >>    (minimum time distance, number can be adjusted)
> >> or
> >> 2. any organisation (member) can only once get an allocation/assignment
> >>
> >> for phase 1, I think any of these 2 options is fine,
> >> for phase 2, I prefer option 2.
> >>
> >>
> >> I'm happy to reduce the "/13" in  3.5.1) EXHAUSTION PHASE 1
> >> to be smaller. In the range /16 - /18 (to be fixed during discussion)
> >>
> >>
> >> Two concerns:
> >> a) we're spending effort for a technology on life support
> >>    (actually the effort is the life support)
> >>    We should spend as much effort for _____________
> >> b) I haven't checked Andrew's scary timeline predictions.
> >>    I'm unsure policy can make it that quickly.
> >>    Just look at the success rate of recent policies, number of meetings
> >>    for discussing the same policy. I'm also aware of policies that are
> >>    not implemented more than half a year after the successful policy
> >>    discussion in the meeting...
> >>    At the very least it will need a change of culture.
> >>    so that any input will need to be shared on email before the policy
> >>    meeting. In order that no new surprising arguments for wording,
> >>    parameters, bike-shed colours are coming up only at the meeting.
> >>    Any questions about the policy can be shared on email and doesn't
> >>    need to wait for the meeting .... etc....
> >>
> >>
> >> Greetings,
> >> Frank
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> On 1/28/2016 6:25 PM, Andrew Alston wrote:
> >>> Hi All,
> >>>
> >>> So, I was analysing some of the latest publicly available numbers on
> >>> AfriNIC space and allocations.  What follows is a summary of that
> >>> analysis, and then some points that need to be discussed.
> >>>
> >>> AFRINIC as of the last report I have seen had 30.6 million addresses
> >>> still available (This may have dropped since that figure came out).
> >>> AFRINIC allocated 16.9 million addresses last year.
> >>> The allocation rates for 2015 are up 35% from 2014, and in 2015 and
> 2014
> >>> combined we allocated a total of 29.4 million addresses.  This is
> >>> approximately double what was allocated in 2012 and 2013 combined.
> >>>
> >>> Based on a 35% increase in the rate of allocation from 2015, and there
> >>> is little reason to doubt this will happen, we will be in soft landing
> >>> in July of this year approximately.
> >>>
> >>> Due to the fact that the current soft landing policy still allows
> >>> extremely large allocations, this will not significantly slow down the
> >>> allocation rates, and if anything, moving into soft landing may well
> >>> spur more people into action and applications, which could actually
> >>> INCREASE the rate of allocation.  Should the allocation rate remain
> >>> unchanged, Africa is out of space by late March/Beginning April 2017.
> >>>
> >>> Now, things to consider.
> >>>
> >>> A.) The soft landing policy ideally needs to be changed to drastically
> >>> tighten the allocations in the soft landing phases, and if we plan to
> do
> >>> this, we have ONE chance to get it right, and that’s in Gaborone.  If
> we
> >>> fail to pass a modification to that policy at the Gaborone meeting
> later
> >>> this year, there will be no more time left to do anything to prevent
> >>> total depletion.
> >>> B.) Total depletion is coming, and nothing can stop it, and we no
> longer
> >>> have years of IP space left in the AfriNIC pool.  This means that
> >>> without a transfer policy of some form of another, be it intra-RIR or
> >>> inter-RIR, anyone who does not get space within this period, will not
> be
> >>> able to get space within the AfriNIC region, at all.  (Unless they go
> >>> and join out of region RIR’s and transfer to the entities they register
> >>> in those out of region RIRs, but it will be an entirely off continent
> >>> process).
> >>>
> >>> So, we can continue to sit and argue with our heads in the sand, or we
> >>> can realise, we have one more policy meeting left before soft landing,
> >>> and possibly one more meeting after that before total depletion with
> the
> >>> current policies.  We either leave all politics that normally is so
> >>> pervasive in the discussions behind and make some meaningful strides
> >>> towards serious policy change, or we fully accept that the end of IPv4
> >>> is here and we are going over the cliff, like it or not.  There are no
> >>> other options.
> >>>
> >>> So, lets discuss, how do we deal with what is coming.  Let me also
> >>> state, the argument that was made in Pointe Noir that some how AfriNIC
> >>> will save us from depletion is completely inaccurate.  AfriNIC as an
> >>> organisation cannot act outside of the auspicious of policy, and that
> >>> means the community as a whole, has to work together if they want
> >>> change, or accept that together we run of out space and do whatever
> >>> needs to be done after that day.
> >>>
> >>> Written entirely in my personal capacity.
> >>>
> >>> Andrew Alston
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> _______________________________________________
> >>> RPD mailing list
> >>> RPD at afrinic.net
> >>> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
> >>>
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> RPD mailing list
> >> RPD at afrinic.net
> >> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
> >>
> >
> >
> >--
> >______________________
> >Mwendwa Kivuva, Nairobi, Kenya
> >twitter.com/lordmwesh
> >
> >The best athletes never started as the best athletes.
> >"You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take." - Wayne Gretzky.
> >I will persist until I succeed - Og Mandino.
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >RPD mailing list
> >RPD at afrinic.net
> >https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
> _______________________________________________
> RPD mailing list
> RPD at afrinic.net
> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
>
>
>
>
> --
> Cheers,
>
> McTim
> "A name indicates what we seek. An address indicates where it is. A route
> indicates how we get there."  Jon Postel
>
> _______________________________________________
> RPD mailing list
> RPD at afrinic.net
> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> RPD mailing list
> RPD at afrinic.net
> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> RPD mailing list
> RPD at afrinic.net
> https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd
>
>

-- 

Mukom Akong T.

LinkedIn:Mukom <https://www.linkedin.com/in/mukom>  |  twitter:
@perfexcellent

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“When you work, you are the FLUTE through whose lungs the whispering of the
hours turns to MUSIC" - Kahlil Gibran
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.afrinic.net/pipermail/rpd/attachments/20160202/a5059137/attachment-0001.html>