[Community-Discuss] IPv4 depletion in AFRINIC will speed up IPv6 adoption - myth or fact?

Fri Oct 28 17:25:23 UTC 2016

- most of the numbers are in the hands of a minority

Which minority Omo?  That’s a very sweeping claim, care to clarify and back it up?

Btw, you say that Frank took a cheap shot….

Allocation policy is pretty clear – space allocated is meant to be used….  And while you sit and advocate for preservation of IPv4 space, will you lead by example and return the 75% of space your own organisation has had for 6 years and has never announced?

I can provide the prefix if you like, and the BGP Play data to back it up.

Or are you advocating its ok to stop others getting space to preserve it while you yourself sit on space that is in clear and total violation of the Ipv4 allocation policies?

Andrew

From: Omo Oaiya [mailto:Omo.Oaiya at wacren.net]
Sent: 28 October 2016 12:31
To: Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com>
Cc: General Discussions of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net>
Subject: Re: [Community-Discuss] IPv4 depletion in AFRINIC will speed up IPv6 adoption - myth or fact?

On 28 October 2016 at 09:21, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com<mailto:owen at delong.com>> wrote:
There are a number of flaws in your question, Omo.

I neither support nor oppose IPv4 obsolescence. I state it as a fact. It is my considered opinion that when a protocol no longer fully serves the community of users it is intended to serve and/or requires those users to adapt to limitations on their use of the network in order to meet the needs of the protocol, that protocol is, by definition, obsolete and no longer able to meet the full needs of the user community.

This is simply fact.

English is not my native tongue but I understand obsolete to be different from deprecated

A protocol that is still more in use than the alternative and commands additional value in a secondary market cannot be referred to as obsolete by definition

IPv4 is no longer able to deliver the full feature set of the internet to the entire user community. It does not have enough addresses to give a unique peer address to every device attached to the internet.

If you can disprove this simple fact about IPv4, I welcome you to do so, but if not, then I again say that IPv4 is, by definition, obsolete.

Deprecated

There are lots of obsolete things still in widespread use. Some countries still use paper airline tickets

You use the word obsolete too loosely.
.

I also don’t favor accelerated runout of IPv4 in the AfriNIC region or anywhere else.

Good.  This is noted.

What I do favor is allocating addresses to those with need now without protecting those late to the party at the expense of those present at the party.

I see no reason to deprive an organization which needs addresses now in order to satisfy some demand from some other organization which may or may not exist at some future time.

Maybe in ARIN.  In AFRINIC, we have a situation where;

- most of the numbers are in the hands of a minority
- where those transitioning to IPv6 will need some IPv4 so accommodation has to be made for latecomers
- a global situation where IPv4 still rules even though IPv6 uptake is now on the rise ....slowly
- a local situation where we need to innovate and work collectively to speed up IPv6 uptake

I work for NRENs and universities, most of whom predate and will outlive most other organizations so don't agree with you.

 <snip>

I will also point out that working for Akamai does not mean that I will automatically agree with every conclusion any random person draws from data supplied by Akamai.

I asked you to refute not necessarily agree.  Do you have a view on the data that suggests different?

Now for some more substantive and targeted criticisms:

If we look at his slide 23 (IPv6 penetration vs Bandwidth), we see clearly that in some countries, the eyeball penetration vastly exceeds content and vice versa. This is obvious from the “outliers” on his graph and yet he makes no mention of this possible explanation whatsoever.

This is a fact.  Why is an explanation necessary?

I suspect that many (possibly all) of the countries on the far left side of that graph are countries not served by Netflix where the primary sources of internet content are not at all unlikely to be IPv4-only which places strong limitations on the ability of deployed IPv6-capable eye-balls to obtain their content overIPv6.

Your suspicion only buttresses the data and authors conclusion i.e that numbers on IPv6 penetration do not correlate with usage and IPv4 is still predominantly in use in these countries.

At the other end of the graph, it is likely representative of the reverse situation… IPv6 content available while a limited number of eye-balls have IPv6 capabilities at this time.

yes, that only a handful of countries globally have the IPv6 capabilities and usage  the figures often touted would want us to believe.

The talk speaks to the relationship of GDP and IPv6 deployment and says nothing about whether or not exhaustion will drive migration.

Perhaps the author didn't think he was qualified or had the expertise to make this judgement.  Different in your case?

Owen

On Oct 27, 2016, at 3:58 PM, Omo Oaiya <Omo.Oaiya at wacren.net<mailto:Omo.Oaiya at wacren.net>> wrote:

On 19 October 2016 at 10:20, Honest Ornella GANKPA <honest1989 at gmail.com<mailto:honest1989 at gmail.com>> wrote:

This is the way to go because from recent research I read on the Internet which makes it clear that IPv4 depletion does not lead to IPv6 uptake.  In fact, I am surprised that Owen Delong continues to advise that this is the way because the data was from Akamai which I hear he works for.  Please see attached slide.  The presentation on the study was given at a recent LACNIC meeting - http://slides.lacnic.net/lacnic26/ - https://www.dropbox.com/s/zxmygx5djtj6cxl/4%20-%20IPv6-GDP.pptx?dl=0

Owen,

Honest has a point.  The author used the Akamai state of internet study as one of the data sources.  As a vocal proponent of accelerated IPv4 depletion in AFRINIC, what do you think of the opinions expressed in the study?

It certainly doesn't support obsolescence of IPv4 as you promote.  Btw, so we can compare, do you have any data that supports your view?

Like others,  I would like to see widespread v6 adoption but we do need to be careful to explain the stats we provide especially for those who advocate to other stakeholders.

-Omo

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Omo Oaiya
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