[Community-Discuss] IPv4 depletion in AFRINIC will speed up IPv6 adoption - myth or fact?

[Arnaud AMELINA]

+1 @Omo

Regards

Arnaud

Le 28 oct. 2016 09:52, "Omo Oaiya" <Omo.Oaiya at wacren.net> a écrit :

> Owen,
>
> This is now a distraction and the tangential discussions bound to make
> this confusing for some so I will conclude.
>
> - We know global regions where IPv4 is exhausted
> - We know that secondary markets have sprung up to make IPv4 more available
> - We know the rate of IPv6 penetration in those regions - generally low
> - Now we have data that shows that IPv6 penetration is not necessarily
> IPv6 usage and is generally less than reported.
>
> You don't support accelerated depletion of IPv4
> You don't have any data to support opinion that IPv4 depletion correlates
> with IPv6 uptake
>
> Hint: 4 mobile companies and netflix is not the entire internet ...not
> even in the US.
>
> I just needed to make this clear now that we have the attention of the
> community and co-chairs on how to proceed with the PDP
>
>
> On 28 October 2016 at 10:12, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
>
>>
>> On Oct 28, 2016, at 1:28 AM, Omo Oaiya <Omo.Oaiya at wacren.net> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On 28 October 2016 at 09:01, Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.c
>> om> wrote:
>>
>>> Ø  Like others,  I would like to see widespread v6 adoption but we do
>>> need to be careful to explain the stats we provide especially for those who
>>> advocate to other stakeholders.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I 100% agree…
>>>
>>
>> Great
>>
>>
>>> and this is why I asked if it could be explained to me how the
>>> correlation between v4 depletion and v6 depletion was drawn from a
>>> presentation that refers entirely to GDP correlation on v6 deployment,
>>> because I honestly don’t understand that correlation.
>>>
>>
>> I don't know where you got this from.   Honest's point is that there is
>> NO correlation between IPv4 depletion and IPv6 uptake i.e that you and Owen
>> have opinions that are not supported by evidence or data
>>
>>
>>
>> You guys are talking across each other.
>>
>> Honest’s point may be that, but the presentation he referenced doesn’t
>> say what Honest said.
>>
>> It says that there is a correlation between GDP and IPv6 uptake, but that
>> there are pretty glaring anomalies even in that conclusion.
>>
>> Andrew is wondering how you equate a correlation in GDP to somehow
>> meaning a lack of correlation in IPv4 depletion. The presentation provided
>> no evidence of any such lack of correlation.
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>> Sadly, I’ve heard deafening silence since then, and it seems that
>>> question is going unanswered.
>>>
>>
>> Perhaps because she was bemused at the lack of understanding?
>>
>>
>> If there is a lack of understanding, then it is among you and Honest
>> because the presentation referenced by Honest does not say what you are now
>> claiming it says.
>>
>> As someone from academia, Omo I am sure you agree with me that any
>>> conclusions drawn from a dataset need to be explained by the individual
>>> drawing the concerns in order for any weight to be applied to them?
>>>
>>
>> No I don't. She provided an interpretation of the dataset which she
>> argues is at odds with your opinions.  From what I can see, she is correct.
>>
>>
>> Which she are we referring to here? The one who gave the presentation at
>> LACNIC?
>>
>> If that is the case, then her conclusion is orthogonal to what we have
>> said about IPv4 depletion. Her conclusion is that there is a correlation
>> between gross domestic product per capita and IPv6 uptake. In other words,
>> the wealthiest nations are more likely to be early adopters of technology.
>>
>> This isn’t exactly startling news.
>>
>> However, it’s completely orthogonal to the question of whether lack of
>> IPv4 resources drives IPv6 adoption. Currently there isn’t a meaningful
>> lack of IPv4 resources anywhere except Asia. Even in Asia, they still
>> remain relatively inexpensive, though costs are rising. We are seeing
>> rising IPv6 adoption rates since APNIC, RIPE, and ARIN ran out of IPv4
>> addresses in their free pool. There are statistics to support this.
>>
>> IPv6 – Google
>> <https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjPhZzHk_3PAhVpqFQKHS95BKgQFgg3MAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fintl%2Fen%2Fipv6%2Fstatistics.html&usg=AFQjCNF9akCtvOxGx3DO8AXKb1ibt3R4Jg>
>>
>> For example.
>>
>>
>> It is up to you to defend your position with some data or substantiate an
>> argument from what she has provided.
>>
>>
>> So, the presentation you and Honest use to “prove” your point is
>> orthogonal to your point. That’s Andrew’s point.
>> I’ve now provided you with clear statistics showing that IPv6 uptake is
>> accelerating since depletion.
>>
>> Can we now stop arguing over whether IPv4 depletion drives IPv6 adoption
>> or not and get back to the real business at hand… Getting IPv6 deployed
>> before IPv4 melts down into a puddle of NATd scrambled bits with no meaning
>> left?
>>
>> Owen
>>
>>
>> -Omo
>> <http:/>
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>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Omo Oaiya
> CTO/Directeur Technique, WACREN
> Mobile: +234 808 888 1571 , +221 784 305 224
> Skype: kodion
> http://www.wacren.net
>
>
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