[Community-Discuss] [kictanet] Liquid Telecom warns of looming address shortage - Daily Nation

Mon Oct 10 10:42:39 UTC 2016

Hi Mwendwa,

Just to give you some updated statistics as well – in terms of global deployment as updated today and ranked in order of penetration percentage:

1

 Belgium

46.18%

2

 United States of America

28.96%

3

 Greece

26.74%

4

 Switzerland

26.34%

5

 Germany

26.18%

6

 Luxembourg

20.90%

7

 Ecuador

18.96%

8

 Portugal

18.94%

9

 Estonia

15.53%

10

 Peru

15.47%

25

 Australia

5.64%

26

 Austria

5.00%

27

 Hungary

4.71%

28

 Saudi Arabia

4.48%

29

 Singapore

4.39%

30

 Zimbabwe

4.39%

31

 South Korea

4.21%

32

 Bolivia

4.13%

33

 Vietnam

4.05%

34

 New Zealand

3.22%

35

 Poland

3.08%

Beyond that – in terms of African deployment –

We have Sudan in position 51, with 0.48%, we have South Africa in position 61, with 0.2%, we have Egypt in Position 63 with 0.17%, Tanzania in position 74 with 0.08%, Cameroon in position 77 with 0.07%, Rwanda in position 81 with 0.05%, Burkina Faso in position 91 with 0.03% and Kenya in position 94 with 0.02%.

The rest of the African countries don’t feature on the list at all.

I am also expecting the Zimbabwe position in position 30 to rise probably to another 5 to 10 places in the coming days – since I suspect that once all the stats are averaged out its going to be sitting somewhere between 6 and 10%.

What is most disturbing about this picture is that the biggest economies on the continent barely feature – Of the top 10 economies on the continent, only half of them feature on the top 100 most v6 enabled places on the continent, and every single one of is in the bottom half of the top 100.  (Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Angola, Ethiopia do not feature at all, Egypt, South Africa, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania are the 5 that do).

Thanks

Andrew

*Some statistics on deployments*
Belgium 55.11%,
Germany 34.50%,
United States 32.83%
Greece 28.53%
Portugal 25.80%
Ecuador 20.8%,
Peru 19.35%,
Estonia 17,32%
Japan 16.61%,
Canada 9.83%
Norway 6.65%
Bolivia 3.8%
Italy 0.73%
Spain 0.7%
Denmark 0.61%

Some interesting findings is that deployment depends on the large ISPs uptake of v6 regardless of economic circumstances. e.g Peru has a lower per capita but has more deployment than Norway. Portugal with $22,000/capita and Greece $21,000/capita are outperforming Denmark with $60,000/capita. Canada $45,000/capita is trailing Estonia with $19,000/capita.

In the success stories, the majority of the commercial access market products have IPv6 enabled by default, and competing products have matching features.

Regards

______________________
Mwendwa Kivuva, Nairobi, Kenya
twitter.com/lordmwesh<http://twitter.com/lordmwesh>

On 10 October 2016 at 11:44, Joseph Mucheru via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>> wrote:

That said, do we have any experts on DOA? I personally believe this is the way forward...

https://www.google.co.kr/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.itu.int/ITU-D/arb/ARO/2011/CyberSecurityForum-Eg/Docs/Doc11-Sorene_18-12-2011.pptx&ved=0ahUKEwjsv8jc3c_PAhUU82MKHeXuALIQFggZMAA&usg=AFQjCNGzWEx4VBdgLQYrceW-eme4GvjaWw

Thanks

On 10 Oct 2016 4:37 PM, "Ali Hussein via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>> wrote:
Andrew

Thank you so much for that informative response.

So let's paint a scenario.

Say, v4 exhausts in say 3 years. What are the implications for the continent esp those who will not have migrated?

Ali Hussein
Principal
Hussein & Associates
+254 0713 601113<tel:%2B254%200713%20601113>

Twitter: @AliHKassim

Skype: abu-jomo

LinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/alihkassim

"Discovery consists in seeing what everyone else has seen and thinking what no one else has thought".  ~ Albert Szent-Györgyi

Sent from my iPad

On 10 Oct 2016, at 9:25 AM, Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com<mailto:Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com>> wrote:
Hi Ali,

If I may respond here.

Firstly – I think we need to be careful about referring to blanket transition – what Liquid has said is, we have to be ready with dual-stack networks.  As v4 runs out – that dual-stack becomes more and more critical because it will enable the full transition when the time comes for it.  How soon that will come is hard to say – but it is coming.

What are the major impediments?  There are 2 or 3 major points here:

a.)     Lack of will to actually do it – it takes work, it takes time, it takes effort – and the will power to actually move beyond talking the talk into walking the walk doesn’t seem to be there

b.)     Lack of understanding/skill – The fact is that implementing v6 vs implementing v4 – it’s just another protocol, same routing, same everything.  But there is a fear factor walking into something that is misunderstood.  That lack of understanding that you can build this simultaneously in the same way you build v4, creates the fear factor.  The fear of handling addressing plans in hexadecimal is also prohibiting growth.  I run into that one a lot – people having issues with the address planning.

c.)     The last question is the million dollar one – because the reality is – all it takes is will power and a willingness to actually take some action.

The simple fact is – we had a relatively small team on this – we committed a bunch of hours – we stuck our heads down and did it.  We did not spend money – other than the cost of the time (which is an OPEX cost admittedly).  We said ourselves deadlines and we DID it.

There are those who propose that setting policies to try and force v6 is workable – it’s not – unless the will is there it will achieve nothing.  People have to WANT this.  It is a matter of desire and a matter of seeing the benefits – the benefits are future proofing – they are not based on revenue generation, but more revenue retention.

And if anyone wants to see just how much impact you can have with a small team that actually has the desire, please see the following stats out of Zimbabwe (our largest consumer market)

http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ZW?b=20161001&d=10
http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS30969?b=20161001&d=10
http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/XB?b=20161001&d=10

(I see things have slightly dropped off today, these stats tend to fluctuate, but fact is – it’s out there and it work’s.

Andrew

From: Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke<mailto:ali at hussein.me.ke>>
Date: Monday, 10 October 2016 at 09:01
To: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>>, General Discussions of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net<mailto:community-discuss at afrinic.net>>
Subject: [Community-Discuss] Liquid Telecom warns of looming address shortage - Daily Nation

Dear listers

Greetings and apologies for cross-posting.

Internet service provider Liquid Telecom Kenya has warned that Africa is set to run out of Internet Protocol (IP) addresses as early as next year, potentially slowing down digital growth in the continent.

Read on:-

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Liquid-Telecom-warns-of-looming-address-shortage/996-3410850-format-xhtml-aub5sm/index.html

Couple of questions:-

1. How involved are we as a community in ensuring the smooth transition from IPV4 to IPV6?

2. What have been the major impediments to the successful migration?

3. How can we move the needle faster?

Ali Hussein
Tel: +254 713 601113<tel:%2B254%20713%20601113>

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