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    <p>This small number of very large organizations *who are able to
      justify a /13 or more* are very unlikely to exist in Africa right
      now. And as mentioned, even if it's the case this doesn't stop
      them to keep working and serving their customers, it's not a
      binary thing. They can still receive a /13 and keep working until
      Phase 2 is triggered soon. If the few that may exist get - and are
      able to justify a /13 at once - then Phase 2 will happen sooner
      and they will be able to transfer whatever else they need
      afterwards. I think that is very reasonable and works fine even
      for these unlikely situations.<br>
    </p>
    <p>As mentioned the real numbers are the key to this and only staff
      can provide them, but I don't think it's even necessary to bother
      really. By looking at the latest NRO numbers from September that
      doesn't seem the case.</p>
    <p>Fernando<br>
    </p>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/11/2019 19:31, Owen DeLong wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote type="cite"
      cite="mid:70CC727B-2E24-4CDE-BCFE-6DB4DC5465EE@delong.com">
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        <blockquote type="cite" class="">
          <div class="">On Nov 10, 2019, at 14:01 , Fernando Frediani
            <<a href="mailto:fhfrediani@gmail.com" class=""
              moz-do-not-send="true">fhfrediani@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div>
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              <p class="">In practice this situation you describe is
                very hard to happen, we cannot have things in place to
                treat the very unlikely situation and that Phase 2 is
                about to happen soon. Until there the vast majority or
                organization (really the vast!) can get addresses from
                AfriNic fine. <br class="">
              </p>
            </div>
          </div>
        </blockquote>
        <div>So the small number of large operators should just be
          screwed over and enjoy it during that time?</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <div>The fact that the number of operators being screwed over
          isn’t so much relevant when the number of users being screwed
          over by proxy in that process is so large.</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <div>I’m not sufficiently familiar with the numbers in  Africa
          to present an accurate example, so I will draw from what I do
          know.</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <div>There are maybe 20 or so major providers in North America
          and thousands of smaller ones. However, if you look at the
          customer base served, you’ll see that those 20 or so major
          providers probably represent close to 80% of the customers in
          the area.</div>
        <blockquote type="cite" class="">
          <div class="">
            <div class="">
              <p class=""> I hardly doubt one can justify anything more
                than a /13 at once at the moment. Even in a remote
                hypothesis that is possible the organization can receive
                the /13 and work with that until transfers are allowed
                as per Jordi's proposal that has been changed to start
                with Phase 2 is triggered and that organization will be
                able to transfer whatever else is needed. <br class="">
              </p>
            </div>
          </div>
        </blockquote>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        Again, I don’t know the exact situation in Africa, but I can
        easily see major expansions of the type being conducted by at
        least a handful of providers in Africa, the most underserved
        continent in the world, as requiring significantly more than a
        /13.</div>
      <div><br class="">
      </div>
      <div>Even if we assume residential only and only a /32 per
        household, a /13 only serves roughly 512,000 households and
        that’s if you can somehow make it nearly 100% efficient with no
        addressing overhead (pretty unlikely in any real world
        scenario).</div>
      <div>
        <blockquote type="cite" class="">
          <div class="">
            <div class="">
              <p class=""> One rule for all and much simpler.<br
                  class="">
              </p>
            </div>
          </div>
        </blockquote>
        <div>Sure, but that rule should include the ability to transfer
          if you choose. Obviously until AfriNIC hits Phase 2 (which
          will happen soon as you mention), transfer would be
          undesirable except for a small number of very large
          organizations. However, once phase 2 comes into play, Likely,
          we will hit phase 2 before this policy could be ratified at
          this point anyway.</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <div>Once we hit phase 2, surely the scenario I describe becomes
          not only probable, but common place. Trying to run an ISP of
          any size by repeatedly requesting /22s and using them up is
          absurd.</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <div>Owen</div>
        <div><br class="">
        </div>
        <blockquote type="cite" class="">
          <div class="">
            <div class="">
              <p class=""> </p>
              <p class="">Fernando<br class="">
              </p>
              <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/11/2019 18:51, Owen
                DeLong wrote:<br class="">
              </div>
              <blockquote type="cite"
                cite="mid:D3DAE780-6328-4D52-B90C-A026A2FBB63C@delong.com"
                class="">
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                <div class=""><br class="">
                  <blockquote type="cite" class="">
                    <div class="">On Nov 10, 2019, at 10:51 , Chevalier
                      du Borg <<a
                        href="mailto:virtual.borg@gmail.com" class=""
                        moz-do-not-send="true">virtual.borg@gmail.com</a>>
                      wrote:</div>
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                      <div class="gmail_quote" style="caret-color:
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                        12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps:
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                        <div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Le dim. 10
                          nov. 2019 à 21:58, Jaco Kroon <<a
                            href="mailto:jaco@uls.co.za" class=""
                            moz-do-not-send="true">jaco@uls.co.za</a>>
                          a écrit :<br class="">
                        </div>
                        <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:
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                          <div class="">
                            <p class="">Hi Chevalier.</p>
                            <p class="">Please allow me to be blunt. 
                              That's short sighted.</p>
                            <p class="">We cannot transfer IN from other
                              regions unless we allow OUT.</p>
                          </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div class=""><br class="">
                        </div>
                        <div class="">Agree 100%, </div>
                        <div class="">Then you have no problems with
                          wait till all RIRs are equal run out before we
                          etablish full in and out transfer policy no?</div>
                        <div class=""> </div>
                        <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:
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                          <div class="">
                            <p class="">All the other RIRs require
                              reciprocal *compatible* policies, which
                              means bi-directional transfers.</p>
                          </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div class=""><br class="">
                        </div>
                        <div class=""><br class="">
                        </div>
                        <div class="">All RIRs don't all have equal
                          amount of free space. Big difference</div>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </blockquote>
                  <div class=""><br class="">
                  </div>
                  Depending on your definition here, 4 out of 5 have
                  exactly equal amount == 0.</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <div class="">
                  <blockquote type="cite" class="">
                    <div class="">
                      <div class="gmail_quote" style="caret-color:
                        rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size:
                        12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps:
                        normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing:
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                        <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:
                          0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left-width: 1px;
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                          <div class="">
                            <p class="">Not allowing this means we can't
                              get resources in either.</p>
                          </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div class=""><br class="">
                        </div>
                        <div class="">While AfriNIC have free space,
                          operators don't need it</div>
                        <div class="">When it run out, then we can allow
                          transfer policy</div>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </blockquote>
                  <div class=""><br class="">
                  </div>
                  This isn’t entirely true.</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <div class="">It’s possible that an operator needs more
                  than they can get via current AfriNIC policies due to
                  “soft landing” limitations.</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <div class="">In such a case, said operator might prefer
                  to transfer a large amount of space in even if they
                  are paying for it on the market</div>
                <div class="">rather than suffer with the small amount
                  of space they can get from AfriNIC due to the current
                  restrictions.</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <div class="">Is there a valid reason to preclude such a
                  transfer which, in reality, prolongs the AfriNIC free
                  pool to the benefit of other</div>
                <div class="">organizations in Africa?</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <div class="">Owen</div>
                <div class=""><br class="">
                </div>
                <br class="">
                <br class="">
                <fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
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