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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/28/19 2:06 PM, Noah wrote:<br>
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<div>Howard,</div>
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<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Jun 28, 2019 at 8:40
PM Lee Howard <<a href="mailto:lee.howard@retevia.net"
moz-do-not-send="true">lee.howard@retevia.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
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<p>Based on scarcity, Africa has the greater need for
addresses. Economists describe markets as a way to
distribute resources according to their best and highest
use. Since that's hard to quantify, they use money as a
metric for best and highest use. Africa has the greatest
need, and addresses there would serve better
(potentially more people) than elsewhere. <br>
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<div>+1 and I dont dispute that. We need more.<br>
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<p>If the only supply is within the region, the prices
will be much higher than outside the region. If in a
year IPv4 addresses are US$30 each, they could be US$50
each in Africa, which makes them unaffordable for many
companies. Prices would be the same everywhere if all
regions allowed inter-RIR transfers. But there still
isn't enough supply.</p>
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<div>Another school of thought would argue that since Africa
is the only place with the most demand for IPv4 since places
like ARIN dont need them, then brokers like yourself would
have Africa as the only place to supply available IPv4 space
and we will dictate the IPv4 price else we deploy IPv6.
Simple as that. <br>
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<p>I didn't say "places like ARIN don't need them." I said there are
only "0.148 addresses per person" outside of Africa. That seems
like a great need, but not as great as Africa.</p>
<p>By the way, I am not a broker and don't work for a broker. I have
never bought or sold IPv4 addresses. I have advised brokers,
buyers, and sellers, and I've studied the market a lot. My
business is IPv6 to IPv4 translation: I want everybody to deploy
IPv6 so we can reduce or eliminate the need for IPv4.</p>
<p>Brokers don't dictate price: they match buyers and sellers, who
can negotiate price. There are many brokers, and sellers, and
buyers--no monopoly. <br>
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<p>A company can save money on IPv4 addresses and CGN by
deploying IPv6. But it's too late to deploy IPv6 before
Afrinic runs out of addresses. Addresses will run out,
and the market will not be able to satisfy the need for
addresses.</p>
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<div>Since I am involved in real network builds, the idea that
its too later to deploy IPv6 is absurd. We are deploying it
and and we see a significant growth in traffic in continent.</div>
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<p>I built one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world. It took
use four years to get our first customers on IPv6, and another one
or two to have IPv6 available to everyone on the network. I hope
that we found and eliminated bugs, and that vendors have IPv6
already built into their products.</p>
<p>But I think that anyone who did not start their IPv6 program a
year ago will not finish before Afrinic runs out. <br>
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<p>It sounds like you have made a lot of progress on your IPv6
program, and I congratulate you. It is impossible to see until
customers start using it, and right now Tanzania is at 0% IPv6
deployment (<a href="https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/TZ">https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/TZ</a>).</p>
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<p> ISPs and mobile carriers everywhere in Africa will
have to deploy CGN, and at higher density than elsewhere
in the world. The cost for businesses to connect will be
much higher, since they need inbound access and
therefore unique IPv4 addresses. African Internet
deployment will stall, all because IPv6 has not been
deployed and there is no way to get more IPv4 addresses.<br>
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<div>Wrong. SAFARICOM in Kenya will tell you otherwise and
other Telecom are currently deploying IPv6 in the continent
and we have such plans underway and this will change sooner
than you think/assume.</div>
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<p>Excellent! I do see good news from SAFARICOM: <a
href="https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/KE">https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/KE</a></p>
<p>I'm really happy to hear good IPv6 news, and I have highest
praise for Afrinic's IPv6 training and IPv6 helpdesk.</p>
<p>I am still concerned that not enough Africans will have IPv6 in
time for IPv4 scarcity to be no problem. I think you agree, since
you are concerned that IPv4 addresses will be needed in Africa.</p>
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<p>Are those the kind of numbers you were looking for?</p>
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<p>I really don't mean to advocate strongly for this policy. I don't
feel it's appropriate for me to do so. You had asked for data, and
I provided some that I thought might help. I did offer my opinion
more strongly than I usually do on this list, because I think IPv6
is better, cheaper, and faster than IPv4 + CGN.</p>
<p>Also, I agree with your concern: there is risk that addresses
will leave the region. There is also risk that there will not be
enough addresses. How do we limit the first risk (too many
addresses leaving Africa), so we can mitigate the second risk (not
having enough addresses)?</p>
<p>Lee</p>
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