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<p>I can't guarantee that more resources will flow in than out.</p>
<p>There is a risk that people in Africa will not be willing to
spend as much to buy addresses as people in the ARIN, RIPE-NCC, or
APNIC regions. When an address costs $20 (and next year, maybe $30
or $40), it is hard to pay that where Internet access is $100 per
year. <br>
</p>
<p>An ISP who makes $10 profit per year per customer may sell some
IPv4 addresses so they can buy NAT64 equipment, and push IPv6 to
the users. That ISP will be better off financially, and better
able to support their customers. But that's just my opinion; I
could be convinced otherwise.<br>
</p>
<p>I look forward to Jordi's presentation.</p>
<p>Lee<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/18/19 1:52 PM, Paschal Ochang
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAMU0wT6j7GacomzSnuvN1=V39C5xn+6Q5=MBX+am0DTc8u-MHA@mail.gmail.com">
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<br>
Based on your analogy Howard it therefore means that this policy
will benefit the region. The major fear is not just the balance of
resources flow but more resources going out and less coming in
and this proposal clearly shows that this region will benefit from
the policy because more resources will flow in the region. Is
there any region that will allow only outflow of resources without
inflow? I don't think so.<br>
On Tuesday, June 18, 2019, Lee Howard <<a
href="mailto:lee.howard@retevia.net" moz-do-not-send="true">lee.howard@retevia.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
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<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<p>This is interesting.</p>
<p>My logic goes like this:</p>
<p>1. Afrinic has a finite number of IPv4 addresses to
allocate/assign.</p>
<p>2. Afrinic will run out of those addresses next year.<br>
</p>
<p>3. Once Afrinic runs out, any network needing more IPv4
addresses not be able to get them from Afrinic.</p>
<p>4. Networks needing more addresses will have choices:</p>
<p> 4a. Stop growing.</p>
<p> 4b. Use (carrier-grade) NAT. Even NAT requires some IPv4
addresses.</p>
<p> 4c. Try to find addresses inside Africa that are for
sale.</p>
<p>Evaluating those options:</p>
<p>4a is bad for the region.<br>
</p>
<p>4b is complicated. It means buying more hardware, updating
some systems. Some things don't work well with NAT. If you
can deploy IPv6 and use NAT64, 464xlat, MAP-T or MAP-E, you
reduce that cost, but it's still more than you spend now.<br>
</p>
<p>4c could get very expensive. Demand for IPv4 addresses has
been around 25,000 /24s per year (with some much higher
peaks) since Afrinic was founded.[1] The Afrinic region has
about seven /8s in total.[2] If demand continues, then more
than 6M of those 112M addresses would have to be traded
every year, somewhere between 1/2% - 1%.</p>
<p>The question then is whether you think there are more
underutilized IPv4 addresses in the U.S. or in Africa.
Assuming a perfect market:<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If Africa is more efficient, and Afrinic's transfer
policy is only within the region, then the few unused IPv4
addresses will sell for a higher price than addresses
elsewhere.[3] <br>
</p>
<p>If Africa is less efficient and Afrinic's transfer policy
is only within the region, then unused addresses will be
cheaper than elsewhere.</p>
<p>If Africa is more efficient and Afrinic has an
inter-regional transfer policy, addresses will be valued
more highly in Africa and addresses will come in.</p>
<p>If Africa is less efficient that the rest of the world
and Afrinic has an inter-regional transfer policy, buyers
in other countries will buy addresses from Africa.<br>
</p>
</blockquote>
<p>My guess is that addresses in Africa are pretty efficiently
utilized, and therefore people in Africa will have a higher
need for addresses than people elsewhere, and therefore a)
prices will rise, and b) addresses will tend to flow in to
Africa rather than out.</p>
<p>Lee<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[1] <a href="https://afrinic.net/stats/ipv4"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://afrinic.net/stats/ipv4</a></p>
<p>[2] <a
href="https://www.nro.net/wp-content/uploads/NRO-Statistics-2019-Q1.pdf"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.nro.net/wp-<wbr>content/uploads/NRO-<wbr>Statistics-2019-Q1.pdf</a></p>
<p>[3] <a
href="https://www.retevia.net/address-pricing-2019-and-beyond/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.retevia.net/<wbr>address-pricing-2019-and-<wbr>beyond/</a>
easily $30 per address next year, maybe much higher<br>
</p>
<div>On 6/18/19 8:18 AM, Pascal ANDRIANISA wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre>Thank you Jordi
if in the opposite case the remaining resources at AFRINIC will be transferred to other RIRs. It is true that I am not against but I do not agree that the current resources insufficient according to the information I received since AFRINIC-29 will be transferred to other RIR.
If you can guarantee this balance of resources transfer I think it will be logical for AFRINIC. Unlike so if AFRINIC has a lot of resources it will be good for the community.
Regards,
Pascal Heriliva ANDRIANISA
Webmaster i RENALA
R esearch and E ducation N etwork for A cademic and L earning A ctivities - [ <a href="http://www.irenala.edu.mg/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.irenala.edu.mg/</a> | <a href="http://www.irenala.edu.mg/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.irenala.edu.mg/</a> ]
Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana
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----- Mail original -----
De: "rpd" <a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><rpd@afrinic.net></a>
À: "rpd" <a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><rpd@afrinic.net></a>
Envoyé: Mardi 18 Juin 2019 14:55:02
Objet: Re: [rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!
Hi Pascal,
Precisely what you said is the argument in favor of this policy proposal, not against.
AFRINIC don't have enough resources. The only way to receive resources is a policy that allows that other regions that are "giving up" resources, can get them.
This is the case for LACNIC (the same policy proposal reached consensus in the last meeting and yesterday the consensus decision was handed out to the board for the final ratification), and for AFRINIC.
AFRINIC must have an equivalent policy proposal to the ones that exist in the other regions, otherwise, you will not get sufficient resources for the continued implementation of IPv4 in the region and this will also be a barrier for the IPv6 deployment.
Regards,
Jordi
@jordipalet
El 18/6/19 10:48, "Pascal ANDRIANISA" <a href="mailto:pascal@irenala.edu.mg" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><pascal@irenala.edu.mg></a> escribió:
Hi Jordi,
I read the policy proposal for IPV4 Inter-RIR Transfert.
The article => <a href="https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-d1#proposal" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.afrinic.net/<wbr>policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-<wbr>d1#proposal</a>
I think this is not the benefit of AFRINIC as resources are currently insufficient for AFRINIC.
Otherwise it is necessary to balance the transfers between RIR because at least the number of resources is limited to sending to other RIRs.
I do not support this policy for this reason, The AFRINIC's resources are not enough for AFRICA, why transfer them elsewhere ....
Pascal Heriliva ANDRIANISA
Webmaster i RENALA
R esearch and E ducation N etwork for A cademic and L earning A ctivities - [ <a href="http://www.irenala.edu.mg/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.irenala.edu.mg/</a> | <a href="http://www.irenala.edu.mg/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.irenala.edu.mg/</a> ]
Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana
GSM :+261 (0) 32 46 680 29 | +261 (0) 34 30 680 29
----- Mail original -----
De: "rpd" <a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><rpd@afrinic.net></a>
À: "rpd" <a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><rpd@afrinic.net></a>
Envoyé: Samedi 15 Juin 2019 13:23:23
Objet: [rpd] inputs on IPv4 Inter-RIR policy proposals - AFRINIC needs this policy now!
Hi all,
I wonder if anyone has inputs on the policy proposals for IPv4 Inter-RIR transfers.
<a href="https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-001-d1" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.afrinic.net/<wbr>policy/proposals/2019-v4-001-<wbr>d1</a>
and
<a href="https://www.afrinic.net/policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-d1" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.afrinic.net/<wbr>policy/proposals/2019-v4-002-<wbr>d1</a>
I will be presenting both of them together on Wednesday 19th. If you're not in Kampala, make sure to participate remotely (<a href="https://www.internetsummit.africa/en/participate-remotely" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.internetsummit.<wbr>africa/en/participate-remotely</a><wbr>), so we can resolve any doubts on the spot.
This is a key issue for AFRINIC, which now is the *only* RIR not allowing those transfers.
AFRINIC is soon (probably around end of this year) entering in exhaustion phase 2, so it will become more and more difficult to obtain IPv4. If transfers from other regions aren't allowed, this will be an added difficulty for the Internet growth in the region, and increase the difficulties for the continued IPv6 deployment.
The region needs this policy *now*, because the implementation requires several months as there is a need to coordinate with the systems of the other RIRs, in order to ensure a transparent transfers process.
So, what is your opinion?
Regards,
Jordi
@jordipalet
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</pre>
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