<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class="">What is a transfer if it is not recorded in an RIR database?<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">What, exactly, is being transferred?</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">I hear this claim often from proponents of unrestricted transfers and the elimination of needs basis in the administration of numbers, but nobody has yet been able to substantiate what, exactly, one would be transferring if the transfer is not recorded in an RIR database.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">You see, the idea that RIRs “issue IP addresses” is rather false. The idea that anyone can own a series of IP addresses is likewise rather false.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">No RIR has any ability to grant any sort of exclusive right to configure a router in a particular way. Even if a set of numbers is registered by AfriNIC to $PROVIDER_A, there is no power vested in AfriNIC or any other RIR to prevent me from configuring those numbers onto my router or even to prevent me from announcing those numbers to my transit providers or peers.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Now, the internet works because, for the most part, everyone in a position to manage routers that matter cooperates with the RIR system. So when I start doing what I described above, people that are cooperating with the RIR system will choose to configure their routers to ignore my conflicting announcements. However, this is an independent decision of each of the transit providers and peers involved and not something AfriNIC or any other RIR or $PROVIDER_A can somehow enforce.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">When one gets “addresses” from an RIR, all one is really getting is an entry in the RIR database which is promised by that RIR to be a unique set of numbers not registered in their database to anyone else and also not registered in any other RIR database among the 5 cooperating RIRs or the IANA.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">That’s really all you get.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">There’s nothing special about IANA or the RIRs that prevents anyone else from operating a competing internet number resource registry system if they choose to do so. There’s nothing that forces any particular network operator to subscribe to the registry system in question vs. subscribing to some alternative registry. The only thing that holds all of this together is cooperation and the recognition by those operating routers that any such fragmentation of the registry system would be unworkable and cause tremendous disruption without adding significant value.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Given that, all one can really actually claim one has when one claims to have transferred an address block is the change in the database. Thus, if you claim you have transferred resources without the RIR database being updated, I’m really not sure what you think you bought.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Now it’s likely (if you’re lucky) that the party you purchased from has a registration in the database and that they will not engage in utilization of their registration in a way that conflicts with your use of their registration. It’s even possible that as long as there’s no conflict, some networks will accept your advertising of the prefixes despite the rather dubious nature of your claim of “ownership”. But absent recording the transfer in the RIR database, I really think that’s an amazing risk to take.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Owen</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Feb 2, 2016, at 05:30 , Andrew Alston <<a href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class="">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" class="">
<div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; font-size: 14px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">Mukom,</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">My view is simply that the transfers will happen, and we have two options</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">A.) They can happen legitimately under a transfer policy and the whois databases can be kept accurate with good information in an open and transparent form</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Or</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">B.) We can hide our heads in the sand and pretend they won’t happen and accept the fact that the whois databases may be vastly inaccurate.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">If we want to stop the mass leakage of space that AfriNIC still holds, the transfer policy can also be carefully worded and timed so that it doesn’t kick in before we hit phase 2 of the exhaustion policy OR make it such that anyone who conducts a transfer
of space AWAY from them, does not qualify for more space from AfriNIC for a period of X time (to be defined).</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">This means, if someone sells their space, they can’t simply come back and get more, and transfer of their space away from them will leave them with none and liable to being without any. This is a damn good incentive not to transfer the space to anyone
else.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Just my thoughts, in my personal capacity </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Andrew</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">
<div id="MAC_OUTLOOK_SIGNATURE" class=""></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<span id="OLK_SRC_BODY_SECTION" class="">
<div style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left; border-width: 1pt medium medium; border-style: solid none none; padding: 3pt 0in 0in; border-top-color: rgb(181, 196, 223);" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">From: </span> "Mukom Akong T." <<a href="mailto:mukom.tamon@gmail.com" class="">mukom.tamon@gmail.com</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Date: </span>Tuesday, 2 February 2016 at 4:20 PM<br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">To: </span>"<a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>" <<a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Cc: </span>Andrew Alston <<a href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Subject: </span>Re: [rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required<br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div dir="ltr" class="">**Wearing NO Hats**
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Markets are quite effective at moving resources from where they are not needed to where they are more highly needed/demanded. This community has always been against a transfer policy because of the perception (correct or incorrect) that a transfer policy
opens the way for legal plundering of AFRINIC resources. What policy requirements should be considered to allay that fear ?</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br class="">
<div class="gmail_quote">On 29 January 2016 at 22:06, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr" class="">
<<a href="mailto:owen@delong.com" target="_blank" class="">owen@delong.com</a>></span> wrote:<br class="">
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex" type="cite">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word" class=""><br class="">
<div class=""><span class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Jan 29, 2016, at 08:23 , Andrew Alston <<a href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" target="_blank" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>> wrote:</div>
<br class="">
<div class="">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word;font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">Hi Janvier,</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">The term secondary market has become commonly used globally. Transfer policies are specific to each RIR though, and while the RIR’s other than AfriNIC each have one (or are developing one), they do differ in certain areas. (Specifically, to my knowledge
RIPE has largely abandoned needs based justification, ARIN has not yet done this, but it is in the works)</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</span>
<div class="">Actually RIPE (sort of) restored needs based justification to their transfer policy. They did it in the least useful way possible, but it was just enough lip service to meet the so-called compatibility test in the ARIN policy for inter-RIR transfers.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">While there have been and continue to be policy proposals in the ARIN region aimed at converting the IPv4 registry from a registry into an auction house, none have succeeded so far, so I would say that claims that abandoning needs based justification in
the ARIN region is “in the works” are exaggerated at best.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">APNIC also restored needs based justification to their transfer policy some time ago.</div>
<span class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word;font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">As such, I’m not really concerned about using the term in a policy within AfriNIC.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Searching for the term, I see the same term used in APNIC, RIPE, the international media, and various other places.</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</span>The term secondary market is fine, but probably doesn’t really belong in the policy text.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Further, this would not be a global policy, it would be an AfriNIC policy. There is no global policy and no need for a global policy regarding transfers.</div>
<div class="">Global policies are for things that control interactions between IANA<->RIRs.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">This policy would work in cooperation with existing policies at other RIRs each of which is a local policy to the specific RIR.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">The way the others are currently set up (APNIC, RIPE, ARIN) is that the receiving RIR transfer policy is controlling for qualifying the recipient and the sending RIR transfer policy is controlling for qualifying the donor. The transfer is effected when
the respective RIRs agree with each other that the donor and recipient have met their respective qualifications.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Now, the can of worms here is that I believe a compatible policy should have to be bidirectional. This would give AfriNIC access to the world’s secondary market, but it would also enable the transfer of addresses out of the AfriNIC region. Under the circumstances,
I think this community should think long and hard about whether that is a desirable outcome.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><span class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word;font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">The rest of the world has openly acknowledged that a secondary market exists, and has largely embraced it, for the good of all concerned, we now need to do the same thing, or get hurt in the process. We
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">have</span> to be in a position to get space after AfriNIC runs out, either from international sellers or from other African entities that choose to enter the market as sellers. We cannot end up in a situation where it is impossible
to get new space as African companies, and that is where we are heading without such a policy. (Well, they will still be able to partake as buyers, but they will be forced to go and take membership of another RIR and register the space internationally, which
kinda defeats the point of an African RIR, since it will result in a flood of offshore entities and money flowing off the continent if we force that route by not having a transfer policy).</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</span>These are all valid points and yet I can’t help but wonder given the relative economies between the regions how much space would flow into Africa vs. out.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">I have no dog in this fight, so I’m not opposed to the proposal, nor am I in favor. However, I do want the community to weigh all of the aspects of this action, including the potential benefits and the possible problems that can result prior to making
a decision.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">I would also strongly encourage the community not to personify the argument. I genuinely believe that each person is trying to move AfriNIC in what they see as the best direction for the community at large and I think everyone deserves the benefit of the
doubt on that even if we do not agree with their vision. This community includes many diverse perspectives and good people can in good faith com to different conclusions when presented with the same circumstances. It is easy to determine who had the best vision
in hindsight, but when looking forward, we are deprived of this benefit.</div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888" class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Owen</div>
</font></span>
<div class="">
<div class="h5">
<div class=""><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word;font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif" class="">
<div class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Andrew</div>
<div class="">
<div class=""></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<span class="">
<div style="font-family:Calibri;font-size:12pt;text-align:left;border-width:1pt medium medium;border-style:solid none none;padding:3pt 0in 0in;border-top-color:rgb(181,196,223)" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">From: </span>"<a href="mailto:jnoulaye@yahoo.fr" target="_blank" class="">jnoulaye@yahoo.fr</a>" <<a href="mailto:jnoulaye@yahoo.fr" target="_blank" class="">jnoulaye@yahoo.fr</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Reply-To: </span>"<a href="mailto:jnoulaye@yahoo.fr" target="_blank" class="">jnoulaye@yahoo.fr</a>" <<a href="mailto:jnoulaye@yahoo.fr" target="_blank" class="">jnoulaye@yahoo.fr</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Date: </span>Friday, 29 January 2016 at 7:03 PM<br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">To: </span>Andrew Alston <<a href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" target="_blank" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>>, McTim <<a href="mailto:dogwallah@gmail.com" target="_blank" class="">dogwallah@gmail.com</a>>, "<a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>"
<<a href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Subject: </span>Re: [rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required<br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255);font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif;font-size:13px" class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
<br class="">
</div>
<div style="display:block" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div dir="ltr" style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<font size="2" face="Arial" class="">
<hr size="1" class="">
<b class=""><span style="font-weight:bold" class="">De :</span></b> Andrew Alston <<a href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" target="_blank" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>><br class="">
<span style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">I am NOT proposing a transfer policy from RIR to RIR, I am proposing a transfer policy to allow us access to the secondary markets of the world
in both directions.</span><br class="">
</font></div>
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<br class="">
</div>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<font color="#70aced" class="">Andrew, I think the concept sounds good but the word "secondary market" is welcome into a global policy ?</font></div>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<font color="#70aced" class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</font></div>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<div class=""></div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<font color="#70aced" class="">Janvier Ngnoulaye</font></div>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<br class="">
</div>
<span style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class=""></span>
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
<div style="font-family:Calibri;font-size:12pt;text-align:left;border-width:1pt medium medium;border-style:solid none none;padding:3pt 0in 0in;border-top-color:rgb(181,196,223)" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">From: </span>McTim <<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:dogwallah@gmail.com" target="_blank" class="">dogwallah@gmail.com</a>><br clear="none" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Date: </span>Friday, 29 January 2016 at 4:17 PM<br clear="none" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">To: </span>"<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>" <<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:rpd@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">rpd@afrinic.net</a>><br clear="none" class="">
<span style="font-weight:bold" class="">Subject: </span>Re: [rpd] Some thoughts, and some actions required<br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">
<div class="">
<div dir="ltr" class="">Hi,
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">Where would African LIRs transfer from if the rest of the world depletes before us (as is the case).</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">Is the intent of a transfer policy the ability to transfer out? If not, I don't think I would be in favor.</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">I would be happy to support a modification to Soft Landing to restrict size/number of allocations.</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">I think we can get it done quickly if we all work together in the spirit of cooperation that brought AFRINIC into being in the first place.</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">AFRINIC en avant!</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<div class="">McTim</div>
</div>
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
<div class="">On Fri, Jan 29, 2016 at 4:59 AM, Andrew Alston <span dir="ltr" class=""><<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com" target="_blank" class="">Andrew.Alston@liquidtelecom.com</a>></span> wrote:<br clear="none" class="">
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex" type="cite" class="">
I’m not convinced there will be much space coming via that route.<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
With the transfer markets open all over the world other than in Africa, who is going to return space to IANA for them to give to AfriNIC when they can sell it?<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
Andrew Alston<br clear="none" class="">
Group Head of IP Strategy<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
Sameer business Park, Block A, Mombasa Road. Nairobi, Kenya<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
T: <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" class="">+254 205000000</a> - M: <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" class="">
+254 733 2222 04</a> - E: <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:andrew.alston@liquidtelecom.com" target="_blank" class="">
andrew.alston@liquidtelecom.com</a><br clear="none" class="">
<div class="">
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
On 29/01/2016, 11:04 AM, "Mwendwa Kivuva" <<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:Kivuva@transworldafrica.com" target="_blank" class="">Kivuva@transworldafrica.com</a>> wrote:<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
>In reference to the Policy authored by Michuki et-al on reserving a<br clear="none" class="">
>small v4 for IXPs, why not just write a new policy to "create a<br clear="none" class="">
>smaller IPv6 transition pool using the IANA returned space AfriNIC<br clear="none" class="">
>will receive over subsequent months"<br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
>Regards<br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
>On 29/01/2016, Frank Habicht <<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:geier@geier.ne.tz" target="_blank" class="">geier@geier.ne.tz</a>> wrote:<br clear="none" class="">
>> Hi all,<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> My first thought about this was:<br clear="none" class="">
>> We (on this list, but not everyone) have seen the iceberg; we can adjust<br clear="none" class="">
>> course but only change the time of impact slightly; should we rearrange<br clear="none" class="">
>> the deck chairs?<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> However, things can change. ;-)<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> I'm in favour of having a transfer policy.<br clear="none" class="">
>> I don't see why it should only get into effect when one or another<br clear="none" class="">
>> soft-landing policy phase kicks in. Why not as soon as possible?<br clear="none" class="">
>> If there are two consenting adul.... I mean<br clear="none" class="">
>> Internet-numbering-resource-holders, then fine.<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> I'm in favour of more restricting allocations during soft landing.<br clear="none" class="">
>> maybe<br clear="none" class="">
>> 1. any organisation (member) can only get an allocation/assignment if<br clear="none" class="">
>> they didn't get one for the previous 12 months<br clear="none" class="">
>> (minimum time distance, number can be adjusted)<br clear="none" class="">
>> or<br clear="none" class="">
>> 2. any organisation (member) can only once get an allocation/assignment<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> for phase 1, I think any of these 2 options is fine,<br clear="none" class="">
>> for phase 2, I prefer option 2.<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> I'm happy to reduce the "/13" in 3.5.1) EXHAUSTION PHASE 1<br clear="none" class="">
>> to be smaller. In the range /16 - /18 (to be fixed during discussion)<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> Two concerns:<br clear="none" class="">
>> a) we're spending effort for a technology on life support<br clear="none" class="">
>> (actually the effort is the life support)<br clear="none" class="">
>> We should spend as much effort for _____________<br clear="none" class="">
>> b) I haven't checked Andrew's scary timeline predictions.<br clear="none" class="">
>> I'm unsure policy can make it that quickly.<br clear="none" class="">
>> Just look at the success rate of recent policies, number of meetings<br clear="none" class="">
>> for discussing the same policy. I'm also aware of policies that are<br clear="none" class="">
>> not implemented more than half a year after the successful policy<br clear="none" class="">
>> discussion in the meeting...<br clear="none" class="">
>> At the very least it will need a change of culture.<br clear="none" class="">
>> so that any input will need to be shared on email before the policy<br clear="none" class="">
>> meeting. In order that no new surprising arguments for wording,<br clear="none" class="">
>> parameters, bike-shed colours are coming up only at the meeting.<br clear="none" class="">
>> Any questions about the policy can be shared on email and doesn't<br clear="none" class="">
>> need to wait for the meeting .... etc....<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> Greetings,<br clear="none" class="">
>> Frank<br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> On 1/28/2016 6:25 PM, Andrew Alston wrote:<br clear="none" class="">
>>> Hi All,<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> So, I was analysing some of the latest publicly available numbers on<br clear="none" class="">
>>> AfriNIC space and allocations. What follows is a summary of that<br clear="none" class="">
>>> analysis, and then some points that need to be discussed.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> AFRINIC as of the last report I have seen had 30.6 million addresses<br clear="none" class="">
>>> still available (This may have dropped since that figure came out).<br clear="none" class="">
>>> AFRINIC allocated 16.9 million addresses last year.<br clear="none" class="">
>>> The allocation rates for 2015 are up 35% from 2014, and in 2015 and 2014<br clear="none" class="">
>>> combined we allocated a total of 29.4 million addresses. This is<br clear="none" class="">
>>> approximately double what was allocated in 2012 and 2013 combined.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> Based on a 35% increase in the rate of allocation from 2015, and there<br clear="none" class="">
>>> is little reason to doubt this will happen, we will be in soft landing<br clear="none" class="">
>>> in July of this year approximately.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> Due to the fact that the current soft landing policy still allows<br clear="none" class="">
>>> extremely large allocations, this will not significantly slow down the<br clear="none" class="">
>>> allocation rates, and if anything, moving into soft landing may well<br clear="none" class="">
>>> spur more people into action and applications, which could actually<br clear="none" class="">
>>> INCREASE the rate of allocation. Should the allocation rate remain<br clear="none" class="">
>>> unchanged, Africa is out of space by late March/Beginning April 2017.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> Now, things to consider.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> A.) The soft landing policy ideally needs to be changed to drastically<br clear="none" class="">
>>> tighten the allocations in the soft landing phases, and if we plan to do<br clear="none" class="">
>>> this, we have ONE chance to get it right, and that’s in Gaborone. If we<br clear="none" class="">
>>> fail to pass a modification to that policy at the Gaborone meeting later<br clear="none" class="">
>>> this year, there will be no more time left to do anything to prevent<br clear="none" class="">
>>> total depletion.<br clear="none" class="">
>>> B.) Total depletion is coming, and nothing can stop it, and we no longer<br clear="none" class="">
>>> have years of IP space left in the AfriNIC pool. This means that<br clear="none" class="">
>>> without a transfer policy of some form of another, be it intra-RIR or<br clear="none" class="">
>>> inter-RIR, anyone who does not get space within this period, will not be<br clear="none" class="">
>>> able to get space within the AfriNIC region, at all. (Unless they go<br clear="none" class="">
>>> and join out of region RIR’s and transfer to the entities they register<br clear="none" class="">
>>> in those out of region RIRs, but it will be an entirely off continent<br clear="none" class="">
>>> process).<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> So, we can continue to sit and argue with our heads in the sand, or we<br clear="none" class="">
>>> can realise, we have one more policy meeting left before soft landing,<br clear="none" class="">
>>> and possibly one more meeting after that before total depletion with the<br clear="none" class="">
>>> current policies. We either leave all politics that normally is so<br clear="none" class="">
>>> pervasive in the discussions behind and make some meaningful strides<br clear="none" class="">
>>> towards serious policy change, or we fully accept that the end of IPv4<br clear="none" class="">
>>> is here and we are going over the cliff, like it or not. There are no<br clear="none" class="">
>>> other options.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> So, lets discuss, how do we deal with what is coming. Let me also<br clear="none" class="">
>>> state, the argument that was made in Pointe Noir that some how AfriNIC<br clear="none" class="">
>>> will save us from depletion is completely inaccurate. AfriNIC as an<br clear="none" class="">
>>> organisation cannot act outside of the auspicious of policy, and that<br clear="none" class="">
>>> means the community as a whole, has to work together if they want<br clear="none" class="">
>>> change, or accept that together we run of out space and do whatever<br clear="none" class="">
>>> needs to be done after that day.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> Written entirely in my personal capacity.<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> Andrew Alston<br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>>> _______________________________________________<br clear="none" class="">
>>> RPD mailing list<br clear="none" class="">
>>> <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">
RPD@afrinic.net</a><br clear="none" class="">
>>> <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">
https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br clear="none" class="">
>>><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
>> _______________________________________________<br clear="none" class="">
>> RPD mailing list<br clear="none" class="">
>> <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br clear="none" class="">
>> <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">
https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br clear="none" class="">
>><br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
>--<br clear="none" class="">
>______________________<br clear="none" class="">
>Mwendwa Kivuva, Nairobi, Kenya<br clear="none" class="">
><a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="http://twitter.com/lordmwesh" target="_blank" class="">twitter.com/lordmwesh</a><br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
>The best athletes never started as the best athletes.<br clear="none" class="">
>"You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take." - Wayne Gretzky.<br clear="none" class="">
>I will persist until I succeed - Og Mandino.<br clear="none" class="">
><br clear="none" class="">
>_______________________________________________<br clear="none" class="">
>RPD mailing list<br clear="none" class="">
><a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br clear="none" class="">
><a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br clear="none" class="">
_______________________________________________<br clear="none" class="">
RPD mailing list<br clear="none" class="">
<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br clear="none" class="">
<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="all" class="">
<div class=""><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
-- <br clear="none" class="">
<div class="">Cheers,<br clear="none" class="">
<br clear="none" class="">
McTim<br clear="none" class="">
"A name indicates what we seek. An address indicates where it is. A route indicates how we get there." Jon Postel</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br class="">
<div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Lucida Grande',sans-serif;font-size:16px" class="">
_______________________________________________<br clear="none" class="">
RPD mailing list<br clear="none" class="">
<a shape="rect" href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br clear="none" class="">
<a shape="rect" href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br clear="none" class="">
</div>
<br class="">
<br class="">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</span></div>
_______________________________________________<br class="">
RPD mailing list<br class="">
<a href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" target="_blank" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br class="">
<a href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" target="_blank" class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br class="">
</blockquote>
</div>
<br class="">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br class="">
_______________________________________________<br class="">
RPD mailing list<br class="">
<a href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br class="">
<a href="https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd</a><br class="">
<br class="">
</blockquote>
</div>
<br class="">
<br clear="all" class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
-- <br class="">
<div class="gmail_signature">
<div dir="ltr" class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
Mukom Akong T.<br class="">
<br class="">
<span style="font-family:inherit;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;line-height:inherit;color:rgb(51,51,51);margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline" class=""><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mukom" target="_blank" class="">LinkedIn:Mukom</a> </span> |
twitter: @perfexcellent
<div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;line-height:17px;color:rgb(51,51,51)" class="">
<form action="https://www.linkedin.com/profile/vanity-name-submit" name="UNIQUE_ID_SafeHtmlFilter_vanityUrlForm" method="POST" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-family:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;font-variant:inherit;line-height:inherit" target="_blank" onsubmit="try {return window.confirm("You are submitting information to an external page. \nAre you sure?");} catch (e) {return false;}" class="">
<ul style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-family:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;list-style:none;font-variant:inherit;line-height:inherit" class="">
</ul>
</form>
</div>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br class="">
“When you work, you are the FLUTE through whose lungs the whispering of the hours turns to MUSIC" - Kahlil Gibran<br class="">
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br class="">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</span>
</div>
_______________________________________________<br class="">RPD mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:RPD@afrinic.net" class="">RPD@afrinic.net</a><br class="">https://lists.afrinic.net/mailman/listinfo/rpd<br class=""></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div></body></html>