[rpd] IPv4 Soft Landing BIS

[Owen DeLong]

> On Jul 28, 2017, at 04:18 , Jackson Muthili <jacksonmuthi at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On Fri, Jul 28, 2017 at 9:32 AM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
>> 
>>> On Jul 27, 2017, at 22:45 , Jackson Muthili <jacksonmuthi at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> On Thu, Jul 27, 2017 at 1:16 AM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
>>>> 
>>>> Frankly, IMHO, the preservation of IPv4 is strictly a way of inflicting
>>>> additional cost and pain on the majority of the internet. Unfortunately,
>>>> much like toxic polluters of the 70s and 80s, most of the cost and pain is
>>>> inflicted on those who are ready for IPv6 rather than those who remain
>>>> unprepared for that future. The good news is that if the current adoption
>>>> rates continue, the holdouts that haven’t implemented IPv6 will become
>>>> mostly irrelevant relatively soon and when the rest of us start turning off
>>>> IPv4, they will be the ones left out in the cold wondering what happened
>>>> instead of inflicting costs and pain on the rest of us.
>>>> 
>>>> The sooner the internet moves on from its unhealthy IPv4 addiction the
>>>> better. I’m pretty sure you know this as well as I do, despite all of your
>>>> apparent protestations to the contrary.
>>> 
>>> - Our region is still a young and growing region relative to yours.
>> 
>> Like it or not, Jackson, I’m part of this region, too. Nonetheless,
>> 
>>> - IPv6 is the end. But IPv4 is still a means to the end.
>> 
>> No… IPv4 is a temporary means of survival and is to some extent the status quo. Nothing more.
> 
> It can be looked at as a temporary means of survival and that very
> premise makes it the means to the IPv6 end. Because the internet still
> operates mostly on IPv4 and an IPv6 only island cannot be reached to
> by an IPv4 only island unless there a mechanism to make the two
> co-exist has been applied. So semantics aside we seem to agree in
> principle.

No, the IPv6 end can be achieved without any IPv4 at all if one desires to do so.

IPv4 doesn’t do anything to help you deploy IPv6.

Therefore, IPv4 is not an means to the IPv6 end. IPv4 is a means to communicate
with the legacy internet. Nothing more, nothing less.

>>> - If IPv6 were the absolute solution we would not have a booming a
>>> billion dollar IPv4 market.
>> 
>> That’s the same kind of logic currently being used by the climate change deniers.
>> 
>> In the 1960s and 1970s, in my other region, the argument was that if dumping toxic chemicals
>> into waterways was a real problem, it wouldn’t be so cheap to do so. Fortunately, the
>> EPA was created and huge fines were put in place and the superfund was created to try and
>> shift some of the costs of these toxic waste dumpings back on to the sources instead of
>> the down-stream victims.
> 
> I don't think we should parade IPv4 at the same level as toxic and
> hazardous waste.

I’m not. I’m parading the use of IPv4 combined with the failure to implement IPv6
at a similar level because it has the same kind of cost-shifting effect.

> But using your analogy, please help me understand how the two liken,
> who is dumping what on who, and which side is facing any costs as a
> result.

By failing to implement IPv6 and continuing to operate IPv4 only, an organization is
forcing everyone else that wants to communicate with them to continue to maintain and
in some cases expand their own IPv4 infrastructure at an ever increasing cost, much the
way that those dumping toxic waste were saving money by not paying for hazmat disposal
while shifting costs on to the downstream public in the form of medical bills, cleanup
costs, etc.

Do you understand now?

>>> - As the growing region transits to IPv6 there will still be need for
>>> IPv4 meantime. If our IPv4 is not well and meticulously managed during
>>> this period it will cost our operators more to buy from the market as
>>> AfriNIC runs out completely.
>> 
>> I actually agree with you here. That’s why I oppose the terrible mismanagement
>> proposed in the soft landing BIS proposal which would deprive operators of networks
>> in the region of the addresses they need in the present in order to protect imaginary
>> future operators who may never materialize.
> 
> OK, if you opt to think in binary, you will be right. But you of
> course know that this is not how planning and forecasting works. The
> region is growing. AfriNIC member numbers are increasing year on year
> and most are small players. And when you look at those numbers in each
> country and other metrics like internet penetration rates per country
> to mention but a few, you know that the forecasts are based on facts.
> If dinner was served at your table and you got home before your kids,
> would you eat all of it because they are not yet home?

That’s not a valid analogy here and you known it. These speculative future
startups that are in your forecast aren’t my children. They’re other customers
going to the same store that I am going to.

Let’s use a better analogy… This is more like a store being operated in a time of shortage.
Let’s use eggs for the example.

As a store owner, you know that there is a looming shortage of eggs because of some horrible
disease that has afflicted all of the local chickens and egg production is less than 1/4 of
normal.

Would you limit the number of cartons of eggs each customer can buy and prohibit customers from
getting in line again if they need more eggs? Would you tell the commercial bakery down the street
that you will not sell them 12 dozen eggs because you might have families coming in tomorrow that
might need eggs?

No, you’re going to pocket the cash as fast as you can and sell the eggs to whoever wants to buy
them.

Obviously this is still a flawed analogy in that we do actually place some limits and only allow
each person to buy the eggs that they can show they actually intend to use and need. (the store
owner would not accept or place such restrictions on his commerce)

However, it’s at least a little closer. Now, let’s suppose that you do actually tell the baker
that he can only have 1 dozen eggs same as everyone else and that he can’t buy any more eggs
for 2 years. Let’s assume that these families you expected don’t come for eggs, but are, instead,
all lined up outside the bake shop trying to buy bread. Unfortunately, the baker already sold all
the bread he could make from a dozen eggs and now he has no more source of revenue. The bake shop
closes for lack of revenue and all of those families you thought you were going to help are now
going hungry because they cannot get the bread they wanted.

>> Forcing present operators to pay higher rates in the transfer market because they cannot
>> get the addresses they need in order to preserve inventory for operators that don’t actually
>> exist is nonsensical and quite far from anything I would consider to be “meticulous management”
> 
> It is also a bit nonsensical to pretend that there will be no new
> operators. This is oblivion at its best. The continent still has many,
> many businesses (and other projects such as schools, community
> networks etc) that are upcoming within this transition phase that will
> NOT afford IPs from the transfer market and they need to be catered
> for. Of course an IPv6 only option will not be their solution as you
> are aware.

I am not pretending there will be no new operators. I am saying that the protection
of new operators which may or may not come into being (surely some will, but can you
guarantee it will be enough to consume the amount of address space this policy proposes
to set aside for them? Didn’t think so) at the expense of existing operators. Let the
new operators and the existing operators compete for the addresses on a level first come
first served playing field. When the address space is gone, it is gone. C’est la vie.

>>> - A mechanism to put in place a carefully managed runout which ensures
>>> fair allocation specifically for a region like Africa that has many
>>> late business and startups is very critical for us.
>> 
>> If I were to see such a proposal, I would support it. The proposal that is the subject
>> of this thread is pretty far from that.
> 
> It does to some extent Owen. It applies limitations to slow down
> consumption rates. Your only strong argument is that those operators
> are imaginary, which you very well know us a flawed argument because
> it defeats the very existence of the concept of planning and
> forecasting.

But these limitations don’t reduce need, they only reduce consumption. They create an
artificial shortage early in order to prolong the duration of the real shortage later.

That’s not carefully managing runout, that’s screwing the entire community to protect
a small part of the community that doesn’t even exist yet and may never exist.

I’m not saying that there will be no new operators. I’m saying that you don’t know how
long the space will last under the limitations proposed and that you can only implement
those limitations if you prevent people who actually need addresses today from getting
them. 

> 
>>> - Irrespective and irrelevant of evolution of the proposal and
>>> bickering of authors the proposal has the best interests of African
>>> network operators and Africa region in general.
>> 
>> Here we couldn’t disagree more. This proposal has the best interests of imaginary operators
>> that don’t even exist and may never exist being placed above the needs of real operators that
>> actually have networks and customers they are trying to serve today.
>> 
>> I don’t deny that the authors genuinely believe that they are acting in the best interests of
>> the community. I’m not accusing anyone of malfeasance or malicious action beyond the ad hominem
>> and hostile rhetoric which has served only to make it more difficult for the community to find
>> common ground.
> 
> Yes at this stage let us continue to reason within what is the long
> term best interest of our community. In this case I mean Africa. In
> the same faith, your analogy of imaginary operators is still baffling
> me. I wonder what makes you think the internet in the continent has
> stopped growing and that no new operators will emerge.

I never said anything of the sort.

What I mean by “imaginary operators” is that you are setting aside a vast amount of address space
out of the reach of clear and present need today in favor of operators that don’t (yet) exist, with
no clear evidence to support any belief that a sufficient number of operators will exist within the
useful lifetime of the IPv4 protocol to actually consume that amount of address space before IPv4
becomes readily available again due to being generally useless.

Protecting the free pool from legitimate use strictly for the sake of procrastinating the official
date of runout is like pretending that a bond-issue is free money because it doesn’t immediately
raise taxes. I’ve got news for you… Those bonds eventually have to be paid back, so either taxes
go up, or, the government cuts services.

Depriving today’s providers of addresses deprives real customers of those same addresses today. Is
it really so important that whatever small startup may arise 3, 5, 10 years from now be able to get
a /24 that it is worth keeping 200+ existing households from getting internet service today?

Really?

If your answer to that is “no”, then you need to realize that you have been defending a proposal
which seeks to do exactly that and consider changing your position.

If your answer is “yes”, then likely we have no common ground, my objection is valid, reasonable,
and sustained and we should agree that we will continue to disagree.

Owen