[AFRINIC-rpd] [AFRINIC-announce] AFRINIC Response to Government Calls for an Arab RIR

[David Conrad]

Owen,

On Feb 26, 2013, at 7:45 PM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
>> Hasn't the exhaustion of the IPv4 free pool already dictated the end of the current management system, one way or another?  
> 
> No, it has dictated the end of the current management system handing out IPv4 from the non-recycled free-pool. It has dictated some changes to the way in which the current system manages IPv4. It has not caused an end to the current management system or even any substantial changes to the way in which we manage AS Numbers or IPv6 addresses.
> 
> The RIR system is in tact and functioning reasonably well, IMHO.
> 
> I would expect you, of all people, to be cognizant of this fact.

Perhaps I am misinformed, but as far as I am cognizant, the current RIR business models are heavily dependent on fees based on the allocation of IPv4 address blocks. Current AS number and IPv6 allocation patterns and fees suggest it is unlikely the loss of IPv4-derived revenues will be mitigated by uptake of IPv6. I suppose there could be a radical restructuring of how folks pay for IPv6 addresses or the RIRs could charge titles registry upkeep fees or some other change to how the RIRs get revenues, but all of those would suggest the "current management system" has ended. 

Further, given the policies and processes developed by the RIRs were tailored to IPv4 scarcity, it seems logical that the same policies and processes aren't directly applicable to IPv6 or 32-bit ASNs (unless you're now arguing that we should treat IPv6 addresses as scarce). I have some skepticism that either IPv6 or ASN policy will require the sort of "fine tuning" that is proving unavoidable with IPv4, hence the "management" aspect of the "current management system" would appear to have a finite lifetime.

I also have some skepticism that political and economic realities will allow rational folks to continue to say everything is "in tact[sic] and functioning reasonably well" in the relatively near future, hence my belief that the real question is related to looking at how the existing structures will evolve.

Of course, just my opinion.  As with many things, I believe we'll see sooner rather than later.

Regards,
-drc