[AfriNIC-rpd] Re: rpd Digest, Vol 37, Issue 2

[SM]

Hi Ernest,
At 08:21 17-05-2009, Ernest - (AfriNIC) wrote:
>Please see attached document with stats as required.

Thanks for the statistics.

>Hope this helps, and let us know if you need additional info.

I took a look at the IPv4 allocation data publicly available.  That 
is not enough for an analysis.  I won't ask you for additional 
information as I would not have enough time to process it.  Please 
read what follows as comments and not as a projection of demand for 
IPv4 addresses or a prediction about IPv4 address exhaustion.

Figure 1 (PDF file posted by Ernest) shows an expected demand for 1.4 
/8 IPv4 addresses for the year 2009.  The trend points to consumption 
of more than one /8 IPv4 address block yearly.  According to Figure 2 
from the PDF, there is a growth in the Extra Small LIRs over the last 
five years.  Figure 3 shows a drop in average annual growth per LIR 
in the year 2008.   I think that the growth for this year should be 
above the level for the year 2007.

According to publicly available allocation data from AfriNIC, there 
are currently LIR members from 44 countries in the region.  The top 
country has 65% of the allocation.  95% is allocated to the first 
eleven countries.  Sixteen countries in the region take up 97% of 
allocated IPv4 address space (aggregation of LIRs by country with the 
equivalent of a /16 IPv4 address block).  Over the last three years, 
56% of allocations have been for a /20 IPv4 address block or less.

I didn't look into what can be done with a /23 or four of them 
(assuming it's the maximum allocation).  Although the proposed policy 
provides for new LIR members to get an allocation of IPv4 addresses, 
it might not be much of a difference for most LIRs in countries with 
less than a /16 of IPv4 addresses.  For those with a comparatively 
sizable IPv4 address allocation, it certainly doesn't look like much 
of a difference.

Regards,
-sm