[AfriNIC-rpd] What is our take on the central pool IPv4 exhaustion?

[Andrew Alston]

Ok, some points:

> how we deal with resources in the short time between now and when the last
new IPv4 addresses are 
> depleted (for instance, does AfriNIC get a larger share to account for
future growth, which isn't 
> possible under current allocation policies), and second, how we deal with
the trading or 
> reassignment of addresses _after_ depletion, when AfriNIC has no more to
give out, and they have 
> to be moved back and forth between users.  Will speculators be allowed to
drive prices up, or will 
> the market be regulated as it is now, to only include qualified
recipients, and keep costs lower?


Regarding what happens after the IPv4 space is depleted. Primarily due to
our current allocation rates, a glance at the work done Geoff Huston will
clearly show, we're allocating slower than anyone else, even with large
amount of penetration growth.  As such, we're likely to be among the last to
actually run out.  At this point, with everyone else having run out, it is
my belief that people are going to be pushing very very hard to head TOWARDS
v6, and as per earlier in the email to which I now reply, without IP
addresses communication will not happen.  This is not without v4 addresses
at this point, its without v6 addresses. Once the space runs out, more and
more of the internet will become unavailable to those who don't have v6.  To
be continuing to preserve the life of v4 after this point is not the
smartest move in my idea, all it will do is force Africa further behind in
the deployment of IPv6.  As for reclaiming v4 space AFTER v6 comes in... for
what... the rest of the world will have gone v6 out of necessity, and NOW
we're trying to pick up v4?

Regarding the so called "black market" for v4 space, in my opinion, the only
roll AfriNIC has to play in this is possibly as a clearing house.  The
bottom line, there is nothing that can really be done to force control of
this, where there are buyers, there will be sellers, and in something as
global and as unregulated as the internet is, to try and enforce control
over a second market like this will fail, dismally, rather let them act as a
clearing house and let the v4 traders trade, while the rest of us look to
the real future, the IPv6 future.  After all, lets face it, if I pay
institution X for /22 worth of their IPv6, they stop announcing it, I
announce it, we both register the proper route objects... you really think
it's going to get stopped?  I mean, at the moment AfriNIC doesn't run RUN a
proper route objects database, those of us that DO have route objects have
them in RIPE's database... yet we expect them to intervene in a market like
this?  Lets be sensible and think about this realistically shall we?

Anyway, just my thoughts

Andrew Alston