[Community-Discuss] IPv6 Chapter 254

Wed Oct 12 11:31:54 UTC 2016

Hi Kevin,

Thanks for the email and insights.  A few comments.

Firstly – one of the things we also need to realize, is that much of the IPv6 push has been towards provided and academia.  If we truly want v6 adoption, I’d argue we are going about it the wrong way, we have to promote it into the corporate and home user market.  Only when these markets start demanding IPv6 will we get true movement from the majority of providers.  End of the day, what matters to providers is the bottom line, and if we can get the corporates to start to select their ISP’s based on IPv6 availability, the ISP’s WILL follow.  So, that is where the outreach has to be focused.

For years we have sort the proverbial IPv6 business case – it doesn’t exist in the sense that people were looking for, because those who were trying to find it, were looking at IPv6 as a revenue making opportunity.  If we attempt to sell V6 as a way to make money, we’ll never succeed.  The trick to promoting IPv6 is to prove that it is not about revenue generation, it is about revenue retention.  If you can make the case that the lack of IPv6 will eventually hurt the entity you are promoting to on their bottom line, you will get uptake.  That case isn’t actually all that hard to make, considering that corporates rely on the Internet in almost everything they do, and when you can prove near imminent depletion of v4, it’s not hard to make this case.

With regards to policies and procedures – I have long taken the (admittedly controversial) view that the only real policy within the address allocation sector that will promote v6, is the one that promotes the depletion of IPv4.  As Africa sits with unused v4 inside its registry, V6 growth will be slow.  We will continue to be a dumping ground for legacy hardware that does not support V6, and we will fall further and further behind the rest of the world.  There is substantial evidence of the fact that V4 depletion does promote the growth of V6.  I point to the Google IPv6 penetration map at https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-country-ipv6-adoption&tab=per-country-ipv6-adoption as case in point.

On this map, you will see there are only two countries in Africa that have in excess of half a percent v6 penetration levels.  One is Sudan, and one in Zimbabwe.  Zimbabwe currently runs at 4.76% penetration and climbing – beyond that the rest of Africa has effectively no real penetration.  Now, compare that to the rest of the world where v4 is depleted, and you see a vastly different picture.  The global average deployment rate is sitting at 12% and climbing, whereas all it took to *double* the aggregate penetration rate in Africa was the v6 enabling of 10 or 15 thousand FTTH users in Zimbabwe.  This speaks volumes, we have v4, and its slowing us down in getting v6 deployed.

This is in line with what you said here:

a) The cost of getting IPv4 addresses becomes un-bearable (as would be if they have to be acquired from the Transfer market)
b) There are no IPv4 addresses to be gotten, anywhere (even if you have money to buy them)
c) The network's owners have this blinding insight of the obvious that the IPv4 game is an un-winable one and IPv6 is the only sustainable way

This is why in the policy proposals before AfriNIC at the moment, there is a policy that is designed to effectively repeal most of the aspects of the IPv4 soft landing policy.  Because to do anything else, and to extend the life of v4, is not helping the continent, it is hurting us, and it is leaving us further and further behind the rest of the world – the proof is plain to see on the global IPv6 adoption maps, and cannot be disputed.

There are those that would argue that preserving some v4 for new comers is the “fair” thing to do, I would argue that let the v4 be used by those who can use it today, to enable their customers, and when it runs out, let us progress forward.  For people who argue that holding v4 space back for some unknown future when people will be ready to use it, is simply not a valid argument, especially when there are entities who can use the remaining v4 to actually get rid of NAT and service end users.  To extend the soft landing policies and artificially slow the depletion of v4 at this stage may help some ISP’s in the future – but it damages the continent and it damages Internet deployment going forward – in short, in my view it is drastically short sighted.

For reference purposes, the following blog which was published by AfriNIC based on content from my facebook page may be of interest:

http://www.afrinic.net/blog/159-getting-africa-s-ipv6-deployment-on-track

With regards to the policy about depletion of v4 space, I refer to the following URL.  This is the policy that is still under discussion as authorised by myself, Kris Seeburn, Mark Elkins, Michele McCann and John Walubengo.

http://www.afrinic.net/en/community/policy-development/policy-proposals/1623-soft-landing-overhaul

Anyway – happy to continue the discussion.

Thanks

Andrew

From: Kevin Kamonye [mailto:kevin.kamonye at gmail.com]
Sent: 11 October 2016 15:17
To: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
Cc: General Discussions of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net>; Barrack Otieno <otieno.barrack at gmail.com>
Subject: [Community-Discuss] IPv6 Chapter 254

As always, thanks Ali and team for breathing some life into this one.

My story with IPv6 started much longer than I can remember. The key moment, however, came in 2010/2011 when the hype hit its peak due to the then projected exhaustion of IANA's central pool (officially announced in 3/02/2011). I was working at KDN at the time and being the largest IP transit provider in the region, a decision was agreed by all that we had to move quick - I think mostly to avoid potential embarrassment :) Our then HOD David W. K., and I sincerely applaud him for the work he has put into building the Telecom Industry in the region, got wind of an Afrinic IPv6 Workshop in Ghana and 13 days later another very commendable colleague and myself were in that class and it all went superbly well.

The problem for me started a few weeks after I got back because I realised that there really wasn't a particular motivation for us to get the other providers to respond (though the hard-core techies like us did some 'test' peering here and there). We even conducted a major upgrade on KDN's infrastructure at KIXP to ensure that all ISPs could get at least 1Gbps capacity ( though this was mostly driven by the Google Youtube Cache that we deployed to handle the post-Seacom Internet traffic explosion in 254 and region). We also pursued ISPs in the region through forums such as AfPIF, ISOC etc. but the matter collapsed mostly due to natural causes.

In short, I would say that there will never be a major crisis as regards to IPv4 exhaustion. Techies will do their thing of patching networks until they can't do it anymore and then they will switch the rest of the population to IPv6.

What we can do for now is to follow in the example of formulating the policies, which I can volunteer some of my time as would be needed.

Lastly, I will quote from this<https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ipv4-exhaustion-5-implications-africa-running-out-last-mukom-tamon> article by one of the guys that led us through the training at NIITA back in 2011 (and I advise going it through in full if you want to learn more of IPv6 in Africa)

Implication #3: Driving Complacency in Africa Towards IPv6 Adoption

[Inline images 1]
So long as it is still possible and easy to get IPv4 addresses, 95% of network operators will do so; humans (and the organisations that they make up) don't change easily. Particularly, organisations fixated on short term results will fail to realise that using every every single IPv4 address available to AFRINIC is not enough for us to catch up with the rest of the world. Not being able to look beyond a the proverbial tree to the forest, it is easy to totally be blind to drastic change in resource availability that will result if one of Africa's large mobile telecommunications companies (say MTN) decides to remove NAT on their mobile networks and give each mobile user a true Internet access experience using public IP addresses (I didn't think it was possible until experienced it for myself in Dar es Salaam last year with Airtel).
Networks will move to deploy IPv6 under the following influences:
a) The cost of getting IPv4 addresses becomes un-bearable (as would be if they have to be acquired from the Transfer market)
b) There are no IPv4 addresses to be gotten, anywhere (even if you have money to buy them)
c) The network's owners have this blinding insight of the obvious that the IPv4 game is an un-winable one and IPv6 is the only sustainable way
d) Some powerful entity forces them (by mandates or by incentives) to deploy IPv6 (like gov't IT regulators)
For most African companies, scenarios (a & b) are unlikely to happen in next 2 – 3 years (unless the shell companies increase and succeed in getting addresses which depletes AFRINIC's current space). Only a few network operators to my knowledge pay anything other that lip service to scenario (c) and the only party that can make scenario (d) happen (gov't regulators) still largely don't know how to go about it (if you are an African gov't IT leader and need help with this, I might be able to help). Therefore, we have ourselves an IPv4 address resource curse!

Good afternoon,

Kevin K.
 K.

+254720789158

On 10 October 2016 at 14:42, Barrack Otieno via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>> wrote:
Dear Andrew,

Many thanks for the feedback and for sharing the policy which i
believe is a good starting point. Maybe we need a couple of town hall
meetings with the business/corporate communicate  and policy makers to
break the resistance.

Best Regards

On 10/10/16, Andrew Alston <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com<mailto:Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.com>> wrote:
> Hi Barrack,
>
> We are also running native v6 on our FTTH network and continuing to deploy.
> We plan to also shortly enable our public wifi networks in Kenya and are
> working towards this (couple of vendor related issues that are being worked
> on in this regard)
>
> We are in a position to roll out IPv6 to any corporate customer and IP
> transit customer who wishes it as well, and have some IPT customers actively
> using IPv6 - Basically the entire Liquid network, irrespective of which
> country we operate in, is fully V6 ready.
>
> The reason the percentage point indicators in the stats I've given haven't
> moved that much though is because convincing corporate customers to take
> IPv6 is slightly more challenging, and our consumer rollouts in Kenya are
> still relatively new (and as a result not yet large enough to seriously move
> the penetration figures for the entire country).   We are however working
> with our customers to continue to increase the penetration percentages and
> get the v6 adopted by the customers.
>
> Thanks
>
> Andrew
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Barrack Otieno [mailto:otieno.barrack at gmail.com<mailto:otieno.barrack at gmail.com>]
> Sent: 10 October 2016 14:29
> To: Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com<mailto:jwalu at yahoo.com>>; KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions
> <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>>
> Cc: General Discussions of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net<mailto:community-discuss at afrinic.net>>
> Subject: Re: [Community-Discuss] [kictanet] Liquid Telecom warns of looming
> address shortage - Daily Nation
>
> Dear Walu et al?
>
> Liquid has been on Zimbabwean Media over successfull V6 deployment.
> Andrew ,  what is impeding deployment of the same in Kenya?
>
> Regards
>
> On 10/10/16, Walubengo J via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>>
> wrote:
>> @Mwendwa,>>>
>> What can you do?
>>    - Government Organizations: Coordinate with industry to support and
>> promote awareness and educational activities. Adopt regulatory and
>> economic incentives to encourage IPv6 adoption. Require IPv6
>> compatibility in procurement procedures. Officially adopt IPv6 within
>> your government agencies.
>>>>>The above text is what we were looking for to include in our revised
>>>>>.KE  ICT Policy.  How I wish you had shared this earlier :-)
>> walu.
>>
>>       From: Mwendwa Kivuva via kictanet
>> <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>>
>>  To: jwalu at yahoo.com<mailto:jwalu at yahoo.com>
>> Cc: Mwendwa Kivuva <Kivuva at transworldafrica.com<mailto:Kivuva at transworldafrica.com>>; General Discussions
>> of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net<mailto:community-discuss at afrinic.net>>
>>  Sent: Monday, October 10, 2016 11:55 AM
>>  Subject: Re: [kictanet] [Community-Discuss] Liquid Telecom warns of
>> looming address shortage - Daily Nation
>>
>> This is an extremely important debate for the continent. Thank you Ali
>> for that.
>> Some of these issues have been debated thoroughly in several forums.
>> It's very important we continue debating them until we see an
>> exponential growth of IPv6 in the continent.To answer a few questions,
>> there is a clear justification on why it is necessary to migrate to IPv6.
>> Among them:
>>    - There are no enough IPv4 remaining for everyone. There are more
>> devices, and people on earth than IPv4. Maximum IPv4 addresses are
>> 4billion.
>> Population of Earth is 7.3Billion. Maximum IPv6 address 3.4×10   38
>>    - Migration will not happen overnight since the recommended
>> implementation is dual-stacking; that is, running IPv4 and IPv6 in
>> parallel.
>> We are not telling people to do away with IPv4, but to run the two
>> protocols in parallel.
>>    - To be a producer of information, you cannot use a shared IP, you
>> need a dedicated IP. This has been a big challenge in the continent.
>> We have stifled innovation by using shared IPs.
>>    - There are many services now around the world which are IPv6 only
>> website and services. If you are not on IPv6, you cannot get to these
>> networks. Africa may get into what I can call "Information dark age"
>> if we cannot acess some parts of the Internet.
>>    - IPv6 is necessary for business growth. How? How will your
>> business scale when IPv4 has run out?
>> What has AFRINIC done to bridge the gap?1. Trainings. This year alone,
>> AFRINIC is conducting free IPv6 trainings to over 23 countries across
>> the continent. Kenya was among the beneficiaries. Check this link
>> http://www.afrinic.net/services/training
>> AFRINIC has an extensive training program provides free training to
>> over 600 network engineers per year on Internet Number Resources
>> Management (INRM) and IPv6 Planning and Deployment. Our training
>> courses are always growing to support the technologies related to
>> Internet resources, including DNSSEC & RPKI. AFRINIC's IPv6 course are
>> IPv6 Forum (Gold) Certified and are fully hands-on, making use of
>> extensive IPv6 testbed access which gives participants hands-on
>> experience on real equipment to configure, test and troubleshoot IPv6.
>>
>> 2. AFRINIC has a Government Working Group (AfGWG). Here government
>> players are brought together to be sensitized on the need to push for
>> IPv6 adoption, and rollout of IXPs, among other. Here is the link
>> https://meeting.afrinic.net/afgwg/
>> 3. Issuance of v6 blocks to ISPs. All ISPs have been issued V6 blocks
>> by AFRINIC. What we should be seeing now is clients insisting they
>> want the ISPs to pass the benefits to the end users.
>> What can you do?
>>    - Government Organizations: Coordinate with industry to support and
>> promote awareness and educational activities. Adopt regulatory and
>> economic incentives to encourage IPv6 adoption. Require IPv6
>> compatibility in procurement procedures. Officially adopt IPv6 within
>> your government agencies.
>>    - Broadband Access Providers: Your customers want access to the
>> entire Internet, and this means IPv4 and IPv6 websites. Offering full
>> access requires running IPv4/IPv6 transition services and is a
>> significant engineering project. Multiple transition technologies are
>> available, and each provider needs to make their own architectural
>> decisions.
>>    - Internet Service Providers: Implement a plan that will allow your
>> customers to connect to the Internet via IPv6 and IPv6/IPv4, not just
>> IPv4.
>> Businesses are beginning to ask for IPv6 over their existing Internet
>> connections and for their co-located servers. Communicate with your
>> peers and vendors about IPv6, and confirm their timelines for
>> production IPv6 services.
>>    - Internet Content Providers: Content must be reachable to future
>> Internet customers. Plan on serving content via IPv6 in addition to
>> IPv4 as soon as possible.
>>    - Enterprise Customers: Email, web, and application servers must be
>> reachable via IPv6 in addition to IPv4. Open a dialogue with your ISP
>> about providing IPv6 services. Each organization must decide on
>> timelines, and investment level will vary.
>>
>> What is the role of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in deploying
>> IPv6?This link
>> https://lists.afrinic.net/pipermail/afripv6-discuss/attachments/201607
>> 10/f7e693ac/attachment-0001.pdf contains some very interesting
>> statistics and findings on V6 deployments around the world, shared at
>> the OECD Ministerial Meeting in June2016. One lesson we can learn from
>> this is work very closely with ISPs. That seems to be the solution in
>> the success stories.
>>
>> *Some statistics on deployments*Belgium 55.11%,Germany 34.50%,United
>> States 32.83%Greece 28.53%Portugal 25.80%Ecuador 20.8%,Peru
>> 19.35%,Estonia 17,32%Japan 16.61%,Canada 9.83%Norway 6.65%Bolivia
>> 3.8%Italy 0.73%Spain 0.7%Denmark 0.61% Some interesting findings is
>> that deployment depends on the large ISPs uptake of v6 regardless of
>> economic circumstances. e.g Peru has a lower per capita but has more
>> deployment than Norway. Portugal with $22,000/capita and Greece
>> $21,000/capita are outperforming Denmark with $60,000/capita. Canada
>> $45,000/capita is trailing Estonia with $19,000/capita.
>> In the success stories, the majority of the commercial access market
>> products have IPv6 enabled by default, and competing products have
>> matching features.
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> ______________________
>> Mwendwa Kivuva, Nairobi, Kenya
>> twitter.com/lordmwesh<http://twitter.com/lordmwesh>
>>
>>
>>
>> On 10 October 2016 at 11:44, Joseph Mucheru via kictanet
>> <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>> wrote:
>>
>> That said, do we have any experts on DOA? I personally believe this is
>> the way forward...
>> https://www.google.co.kr/url? sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=
>> https://www.itu.int/ITU-D/arb/ ARO/2011/CyberSecurityForum-
>> Eg/Docs/Doc11-Sorene_18-12- 2011.pptx&ved=0ahUKEwjsv8jc3c_
>> PAhUU82MKHeXuALIQFggZMAA&usg= AFQjCNGzWEx4VBdgLQYrceW-
>> eme4GvjaWwThanks On 10 Oct 2016 4:37 PM, "Ali Hussein via kictanet"
>> <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:
>>
>> Andrew
>> Thank you so much for that informative response.
>> So let's paint a scenario.
>> Say, v4 exhausts in say 3 years. What are the implications for the
>> continent esp those who will not have migrated?
>> Ali HusseinPrincipalHussein & Associates+254 0713 601113
>> Twitter: @AliHKassimSkype: abu-jomoLinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.c
>> om/in/alihkassim
>>
>> "Discovery consists in seeing what everyone else has seen and thinking
>> what no one else has thought".  ~ Albert Szent-Györgyi Sent from my
>> iPad On 10 Oct 2016, at 9:25 AM, Andrew Alston
>> <Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.c om<mailto:Andrew.Alston at liquidtelecom.c%20om>>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Hi Ali, If I may respond here.  Firstly – I think we need to be
>> careful about referring to blanket transition – what Liquid has said
>> is, we have to be ready with dual-stack networks.  As v4 runs out –
>> that dual-stack becomes more and more critical because it will enable
>> the full transition when the time comes for it.  How soon that will
>> come is hard to say – but it is coming. What are the major
>> impediments?  There are 2 or 3 major points
>> here: a.)    Lack of will to actually do it – it takes work, it takes
>> time, it takes effort – and the will power to actually move beyond
>> talking the talk into walking the walk doesn’t seem to be thereb.)
>> Lack of understanding/skill – The fact is that implementing v6 vs
>> implementing v4 – it’s just another protocol, same routing, same
>> everything.  But there is a fear factor walking into something that is
>> misunderstood.  That lack of understanding that you can build this
>> simultaneously in the same way you build v4, creates the fear factor.
>> The fear of handling addressing plans in hexadecimal is also
>> prohibiting growth.  I run into that one a lot – people having issues
>> with the address planning.c.)    The last question is the million
>> dollar one – because the reality is – all it takes is will power and a
>> willingness to actually take some action. The simple fact is – we had
>> a relatively small team on this – we committed a bunch of hours – we
>> stuck our heads down and did it.  We did not spend money – other than
>> the cost of the time (which is an OPEX cost admittedly).  We said
>> ourselves deadlines and we DID it.  There are those who propose that
>> setting policies to try and force
>> v6 is workable – it’s not – unless the will is there it will achieve
>> nothing.  People have to WANT this.  It is a matter of desire and a
>> matter of seeing the benefits – the benefits are future proofing –
>> they are not based on revenue generation, but more revenue retention.
>> And if anyone wants to see just how much impact you can have with a
>> small team that actually has the desire, please see the following
>> stats out of Zimbabwe (our largest consumer market)
>> http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ip
>> v6/ZW?b=20161001&d=10http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ip
>> v6/AS30969?b=20161001&d=10http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ip
>> v6/XB?b=20161001&d=10 (I see things have slightly dropped off today,
>> these stats tend to fluctuate, but fact is – it’s out there and it
>> work’s. Andrew    From: Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke<mailto:ali at hussein.me.ke>>
>> Date: Monday, 10 October 2016 at 09:01
>> To: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke<mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> >,
>> General Discussions of AFRINIC <community-discuss at afrinic.net<mailto:community-discuss at afrinic.net> >
>> Subject: [Community-Discuss] Liquid Telecom warns of looming address
>> shortage - Daily Nation Dear listersGreetings and apologies for
>> cross-posting.Internet service provider Liquid Telecom Kenya has
>> warned that Africa is set to run out of Internet Protocol (IP)
>> addresses as early as next year, potentially slowing down digital
>> growth in the continent.Read on:-http://www.nation.co.ke/busine
>> ss/Liquid-Telecom-warns-of-
>> looming-address-shortage/996- 3410850-format-xhtml-aub5sm/
>> index.htmlCouple of questions:-1. How involved are we as a community
>> in ensuring the smooth transition from IPV4 to IPV6?2. What have been
>> the major impediments to the successful migration?3. How can we move
>> the needle faster?Ali Hussein
>> Tel: +254 713 601113
>>
>> ______________________________ _________________ kictanet mailing list
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>> policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for
>> reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled
>> growth and development.
>>
>> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
>> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and
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>> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder
>> platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT
>> policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for
>> reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled
>> growth and development.
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>> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
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>
>
> --
> Barrack O. Otieno
> +254721325277
> +254733206359
> Skype: barrack.otieno
> PGP ID: 0x2611D86A
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