[AfrIPv6-Discuss] Finding solutions to things that stop people moving to IPv6

Lee Howard lee.howard at retevia.net
Thu Dec 6 19:25:52 UTC 2018 

On 12/6/18 1:47 PM, Noureddine IDBOUFKER via AfrIPv6-Discuss wrote:
> Sure there are many opportunities behind Transition to IPv6 but 
> unfortunately, for African Operators in each country, there is also a 
> risk. Every day elapsed before this transition moves them towards a 
> very risky situation. I talk about Business and also technical risks. 
> Unfortunately, the majority of operators has an urgency mindset.
>  I am really convinced that in order to encourage them to transit to 
> IPv6, African Communities has to focus on risks and the urgency aspect 
> of the transition. For example leading studies in order to produce a 
> kind of SWOT Matrix, adapted to the African context, establishing 
> Strengths, Weaknesses, Threats and Opportunities.

Yes, I see your point.

I wonder, how urgent does IPv4 runout have to be for the urgency to be a 
major risk?

(Short version: if you haven't started IPv6 already, you will not be 
able to add new users by mid-2020).

Using http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html I think we will reach 
Exhaustion Phase 2 in 6-8 months. Let's say July 2019. That means that 
everyone who has received IPv4 addresses since this past July has 
received their last Phase 1 allocation.

Under current policy as I understand it, starting next July, networks 
will only get up to a /22 per application (or less, if a /23 or /24 will 
last them 8 months). If they use that /22, they can get another, and 
another, but whoever does the IP management work will be busy submitting 
applications.

The Phase 2 policy might slow down consumption a little bit. Say the 
last /11 will run out a year later, in June 2020.

As I see it, every wireline ISP in Africa that is not already using IPv6 
will turn on their last new customer in 18 months. It is too late to 
avoid this: it will take at least two years to adopt IPv6. The only 
options they will have left are CGN or buying addresses; those will add 
conservatively US$10-40 cost per user.

Mobile networks may be able to last a few months longer, depending on 
their rate of growth and the ratio of users to IPv4 addresses.

The network with a two-year plan will be the only network left in two years.

Please, convince me I'm wrong.

Lee


>
> Regards
> -----------------------------------------------
> Noureddine IDBOUFKER
> https://www.linkedin.com/in/idboufkernoureddine/
>
>
> Le jeudi 6 décembre 2018 à 15:51:06 UTC+1, Lee Howard 
> <lee.howard at retevia.net> a écrit :
>
>
>
> On 12/6/18 5:22 AM, Noureddine IDBOUFKER via AfrIPv6-Discuss wrote:
> I think that Top management is not enough *aware *of business 
> opportunities behind IPv6 migration.
> Sure IPv6 will give them the opportunity to address a high number of 
> objects, equipements, services,....  but it is not limited to that. 
> Top management has to encourage their people to be express their 
> innovation capabilities in a such a way to contribute to the 
> developpement of Value Added Services.
> Providers who will not propose new competitive service catalogue will 
> simply die in globalized world. Top management has to know hat IPv6 is 
> a real pillar of IT governance.
>
> I agree with that. I have several presentations on business reasons 
> for IPv6, which I imagine overlap with AFRINIC's IPv6 for Executives 
> training:
>
>   * Not running out of addresses, so you can keep adding customers
>   * Faster [1]
>   * Because it's faster, Google page rank is higher; more customers
>     see your web site
>   * Because it's faster, users spend more time on the page; more ad
>     revenue
>   * IPv6 is on by default; may present security risks if not secured
>   * Use addresses to identify services; easier policy routing, ACLs,
>     security, troubleshooting, etc.
>   * New diagnostic tools PDM [rfc8250] and maybe M-PDM
>     [draft-fear-ippm-mpdm]
>   * Simpler container networking [2]
>   * Segment Routing with IPv6: no MPLS/LDP/RSVP-TE/NSH, it's all just
>     IP. [3]
>
> The last few are cutting-edge developments that are not widely 
> available yet, but are examples of innovations enabled by IPv6. I 
> didn't even list "It's not NAT" because you're likely to use some kind 
> of address sharing to reach legacy IPv4 sites, but that need declines 
> as others deploy, and it may be cheaper than NAT44.
>
> IPv6 is cool.
>
> Lee
>
> [1] https://stats.labs.apnic.net/v6perf/XB
>
> [2] *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF50OxZ5u4o*
>
> *[3] ***https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUN68P6UAn0**
>
> **
>
>> Regards
>> -----------------------------------------------
>> Noureddine IDBOUFKER
>>
>>
>> Le jeudi 6 décembre 2018 à 10:57:24 UTC+1, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ via 
>> AfrIPv6-Discuss <afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> 
>> <mailto:afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> a écrit :
>>
>>
>> Operators are informed, if you speak about “engineers”, the problem 
>> is to inform the CEOs of operator AND the CEOs of important companies 
>> in each country (financial sectors, companies that export or have 
>> relevant web sites, etc.).
>>
>> I recall ARIN did sent a letter to them (in their region) a few years 
>> ago.
>>
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>> Jordi
>>
>> *De: *Pascal ANDRIANISA <pascal at irenala.edu.mg> 
>> <mailto:pascal at irenala.edu.mg>
>> *Responder a: *IPv6 in Africa Discussions 
>> <afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> <mailto:afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net>
>> *Fecha: *jueves, 6 de diciembre de 2018, 10:47
>> *Para: *IPv6 in Africa Discussions <afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> 
>> <mailto:afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net>
>> *Asunto: *Re: [AfrIPv6-Discuss] Finding solutions to things that stop 
>> people moving to IPv6
>>
>> Dear All, I think there is also another solution which is to inform 
>> the operators in each country of the situation because if only the 
>> members who will apply IPv6 it will not be possible to use it 
>> optimally. I do not know if a provision to that effect has already 
>> been taken but I think that all the members are aware of the 
>> situation. Best regard,
>> *Pascal*Heriliva ANDRIANISA Webmaster i RENALA *R*esearch and *E*ducation 
>> *N*etwork for *A*cademic and *L*earning *A*ctivities - 
>> http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement 
>> Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana_GSM _:+261 (0) 32 46 680 29 |  +261 (0) 34 30 680 29
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> *De: *"Mukom Akong T." <mukom.tamon at gmail.com> 
>> <mailto:mukom.tamon at gmail.com> *À: *"IPv6 in Africa" 
>> <afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> <mailto:afripv6-discuss at afrinic.net> 
>> *Envoyé: *Jeudi 6 Décembre 2018 06:41:29 *Objet: *Re: 
>> [AfrIPv6-Discuss] Finding solutions to things that stop people moving 
>> to IPv6
>> > > Consumers are unaware of IPv6, so it's not part of their buying 
>> decision. If something doesn't make consumer buy boxes, vendors don't 
>> do it. I do not think consumer education about IP is a good idea. 
>> Neither do I. Consumers don't DIRECTLY care about IP (whether v4 or 
>> v6). But they do care about other features that may be only possible 
>> (or easier, or cheaper) with v6. This is one place where I see the 
>> role of governments. In the interest of national development, just 
>> ban importation and sale of legacy equipment. Similar to what is 
>> already done with type approval in telecommunications today. > ISPs 
>> buying cheap boxes and not paying anything for support, so they can't 
>> get upgrades. > Foreign ISPs dumping volumes of used CPE, which get 
>> resold at deep discounts. I've been screaming about this for years. 
>> Even worse, some of it is going to be "sold" as "next generation 
>> Internet aid or technical corporation") which further cripples IPv6 
>> deployment. > > Something that has worked for some companies is an 
>> "ISP Certified" sticker. CPE vendors could apply to an ISP, and pay 
>> the costs of testing. If the tests complied with the ISP's 
>> requirements, which might include MAP, lw4o6, or 464xlat support, the 
>> vendor is allowed to put a sticker on their box saying, "This device 
>> certified for use with $ISP." There might be a business opportunity 
>> for someone who can set up a really good CPE testing lab, so ISPs 
>> could outsource their testing and certification. In addition, I 
>> believe that with two days of training (regulators and customs) and 
>> the appropriate infrastructure and a PROCESS, we can help a 
>> government implement type approval for IPv6. Any regulator that 
>> wishes to do this should reach out and join the waiting list by 
>> taking the Government IPv6 Readiness Self Assessment at ENGLISH → 
>> https://vox.afrinic.net/465923?lang=en FRENCH → 
>> https://vox.afrinic.net/465923?lang=fr > For years I have been an 
>> IPv6 advocate – and I still am – and I’ve actively deployed and run 
>> IPv6 in production supplying it to the end user, with multiple 
>> percentage point changes in country IPv6 penetration statistics as a 
>> result, but I am fast realizing that if we want IPv6 to grow and 
>> thrive – it’s time we started being a little more open and honest 
>> about the challenges and problems with it – instead of sprouting off 
>> that everyone should just move to it.   Let’s acknowledge that IPv6 
>> is critical, we have no option, but it is also deeply flawed, has 
>> major problems, and until start dealing with those – we will see 
>> deployment continue to stutter I agree with the above. The solution 
>> is not just another open "discussion" where people who have not even 
>> started any kind of deployment, or even have a fair idea of what 
>> percentage of equipment might or might not be v6 ready go on an on 
>> about problems they've only heard about. > > Should we have a round 
>> table discussion at AIS? How can we identify and make progress on 
>> resolving issues with IPv6? > Perhaps we can start with a mailing 
>> list thread of SPECIFIC issues people have encountered while 
>> attempting a deployment on this mailing list, then build up to a 
>> webinar or discussion at AIS. There are probably about 400million 
>> users using IPv6 today and growing, someone somewhere has solved 
>> those problems. > The common theme in my answers above is that more 
>> people running IPv6 provides more weight in solving problems. If 
>> everyone would take a couple of hours to do three things, we'd have a 
>> very broad base of common experience to draw from: > > 1. Write an 
>> address plan. Don't worry if it takes several revisions, that's 
>> normal. > > 2. Apply to Afrinic for IPv6 addresses. > > 3. Announce 
>> the IPv6 addresses and route them on your backbone. These are things 
>> that we've helped operators implement in 1 day at our deployathons 
>> (or 6 two hour sessions during helpdesk calls). It's surprising how 
>> many operators need help with their address planning. Which is why 
>> not only do we teach them how to determine how much space they get, 
>> but also how to implement them in an IPAM.  For those interested, a 
>> video of a highly attended and rated AFRINIC webinar can be found at 
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFIVQ_Z9je8&t=542s Step by step 
>> walk-through of address planning best practices and implementation in 
>> an IPAM ---- no maths! > > AFRINIC's training and IPv6 Helpdesk are 
>> great resources. The premise behind the helpdesk is this: We can find 
>> ONE operator a month that's committed to deploying IPv6, we keep 
>> providing targeted training and coaching to move them from one 
>> deployment milestone to another until we get stuck with incompatible 
>> equipment or internal collaboration issues. All it takes is about 4 
>> hours investment per week. If you are interested, make a request at 
>> bit.ly/6deployEN <http://bit.ly/6deployEN>   (english) 
>> bit.ly/6deployFR <http://bit.ly/6deployFR>    (french) As we do this, 
>> we're also building an tremendous amount of intel on what actually 
>> HOLDS IPv6 deployment back from real operators attempting to deploy 
>> it and so far with over 45 tickets, the evidence indicates that 
>> incompatible equipment is not in the top 5.
>> We're also realising that that argument from big operators about 
>> "customers aren't asking for it" is not true. We know of large 
>> operators that within 2 months have received explicitly written 
>> requests to enable IPv6 from large corporate customers. You don't 
>> want to see their response :(
>> If you want to host one of our DEPLOYATHON sessions in your country
>> - 5% teaching, 95% DOing
>> - using our Prototype → Validate → Develop → Deploy framework
>> - enables you hit a measurable deployment milestone within 8 hours
>> you can apply at: https://vox.afrinic.net/189828?lang=en (or 
>> https://vox.afrinic.net/189828?lang=fr in french)
>> And for those who are still wondering how ready or not their 
>> organisations are, take our free Organisational IPv6 Readiness 
>> Assessment at https://vox.afrinic.net/651525?lang=en  (or 
>> https://vox.afrinic.net/651525?lang=fr in French)
>> The results might provide pointers where to start the process.
>> Until next time ..... be EXCELLENT -- Mukom Akong T. LinkedIn:Mukom 
>>  |  twitter: @perfexcellent 
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
>> “When you work, you are the FLUTE through whose lungs the whispering 
>> of the hours turns to MUSIC" - Kahlil Gibran 
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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