<div class="logo">
<img src="http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/printer_friendly/news_logo.gif" alt="BBC NEWS" width="163" height="34">
</div>
<div class="headline">
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8064579.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8064579.stm</a><br>The Tech Lab: Paul Twomey
</div>
<div class="bo">
<p>
</p></div>
<div class="bo">
<p>
<b>
Dr Paul Twomey, president of the internet admin body Icann, talks about the net's potential for change.
</b>
</p><p>
In a time of gloom I am an optimist. There is a tide of innovation
sweeping the world. Those concerned about how to counter recession and
poor financial system transparency should look at how the rapidly
globalising internet is changing how our world works. </p><p> While the web has changed our lives, we are but on the
edge of a transformative revolution which will change both developed
and developing countries. </p><p> The mobile global internet is growing quickly to
connect billions of people, devices and things. It offers much greater
productivity and lower barriers to entry for users and businesses. </p><p> In my travels I see "suits" in Manhattan, shop owners
in Hyderabad, tour guides in Luxor, students in Santiago del Chile,
Aboriginal artists in Alice Springs, fisherman in Hoi An; all glued to
their handsets and the net. </p><p> This empowerment of individuals, especially in the
developing world, is transforming social, economic, and political
relationships. </p><p>
</p></div>
<div class="ibox">
<b>
</b>
“
<b>
The implications of the rapid penetration of the internet are staggering
</b>
”
<br>
Paul Twomey
</div>
<div class="bo">
<p>
At a time of financial crisis, when all are calling for transparency
and good governance, the internet economy's feedback loops should be
grasped, transforming the way we think of currency and accuracy of
information and to change how we develop policy and make decisions. </p><p>
But we also need to stay alert to the forces that may contribute to the fragmentation of the global web.
</p><p>
Most internet users today will have had their first interaction with
this phenomenal communications platform in the mid 90's, following the
advent of the HTML and the World Wide Web. </p><p> My first encounter with the internet was in a crowded
network operations centre, at the Australian National University, in
1991. I remember thinking, someone is going to turn this into a tool
for average people and unleash all sorts of economic opportunities. </p><p>
The next year Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau developed the Web and did just that.
</p><p>
Despite the obvious promise then, few would have envisaged that in such
a short time, the internet would come to play a crucial role in
international commerce, communications, government, education
entertainment, and delivery of services. </p><p>
And this is only the beginning.
</p><p>
While we are offered glimpses of how the internet might evolve in the
coming years, the last 30 years has taught us that we probably haven't
yet imagined the long-term impact of the global internet on society. </p><p>
<b>
New worlds
</b>
</p><p>
Having said that, it's already clear where the next wave of internet
growth and innovation will come from. It will come from the world's
developing economies, and it won't even be reliant on access to
personal computers. </p><p> Worldwide, we're seeing an unprecedented expansion of
internet networks, driven most recently by convergence with mobile
communications. </p></div>
<div class="bo">
<p>
This represents a revolutionary shift in the provision of information
and empowerment to individuals throughout the world. Ten years ago, 100
million people used the internet. Today it is 1.4 billion. </p><p>
By the end of 2010, 5 billion people will have a mobile phone. Many of these will be internet enabled.
</p><p>
The consequence of this growth and convergence is an enormous
democratisation and devolution of decision-making throughout the globe,
especially within the developing world. India alone has a handset
uptake of 9 million per month. </p><p> The expansion of mobile networks, combined with the
latest smartphone and other internet enabled devices, are enabling
developing economies to leapfrog traditional technologies and remove
barriers to entry to the global economy for their citizens and
businesses. </p><p> Married to the introduction of new generation operating
systems, like Google's Android and the IPhone, this mobile internet
revolution is going to greatly expand the commercial, social, and
political feedback loops which the internet enables and fosters. </p><p> This is transformative for the way governments and
companies need to consider how information is gathered, analyzed, and
acted on. In a truly networked world, decisions need to be made on real
time data, reflecting network effects of complex "eco-systems". Imagine
Facebook meets the national bureaus of statistics. </p><p> This revolution is particularly important for the
services sector of the global economy. As Alan Greenspan noted in the
1990s, the first major impact of the internet in the US economy was in
helping to drive down inventories across the supply chain in goods. </p><p> The manufacturing and retail sectors have continued to
use these networks to enable greater transparency of information across
global trading networks; hence, spurring continued globalization, lower
costs, and economic growth. </p><p> The services sector has not been as agile. Indeed, in
major parts of the professional service sectors, health care, and
government services, the full promise of information flows across fully
networked sectors has not yet been achieved. This should be a major
focus for policy makers considering about how to get the full economic
benefits from the growth in data networks. </p><p>
<b>
Growth pains
</b>
</p><p>
The implications of the rapid penetration of the internet are
staggering. If current industry estimates prove correct, there will be
1.5 billion new internet users in the next two to three years - just
over double the number of current users. </p><p>
And these networked ecosystems will not just be human. We are moving into a realm of the machine-to-machine internet.
</p></div>
<div class="bo">
<p>
The introduction of Internet Protocol (IP) version 6 into common usage
means that the address space available to connect devices to the net is
growing from 4.2 billion with IPv4 to 340 trillion, trillion, trillion
addresses. With pervasive wireless connectivity, this means everything
can talk to everything. </p><p> Car and aircraft manufacturers are already preparing
for components to be tracked and provide performance reporting through
the Net. Such a pervasive public internet will also support private
trading networks, using Radio Frequency ID technology, for tracking
physical objects through the supply chains of the world. </p><p> While the internet unites people, the very nature of
its rapid expansion has produced stresses that threaten to fragment it.
One force for fragmentation could be political, whether motivated by
cultural norms or fear of dissent; it is essential not to confuse the
content debates with the underlying global addressing and routing
system. </p><p> Another stress could be linguistic fragmentation. Here
the role of Internationalized Domain Names is essential to ensure a
globally unified Domain Name System, while enabling linguistic
localization. There are also technical and business drivers. </p><p> The boundary between the traditional PC-based internet
enjoyed by 1.3bn people (largely in the developed world) and the mobile
communications (used by billions in developed and less-developed
countries) is still somewhat ragged. </p><p> We need to ensure that carriers or device manufacturers
do not impose "walled gardens" that block users from the benefits of
the "innovation at the edge" model of the internet. </p><p> Despite these concerns, I remain hopeful that with
appropriate attention by leading governments, business and civil
society these forces can be managed. </p><p> In the coming years, it is going to be vital that we
avoid fragmentation and maintain a single interoperable internet. To
achieve this, network expansion must continue in order to spread the
benefits more widely, and the internet's tradition of coordination of
technical evolution among multiple stakeholders needs to be maintained.
</p><p>
Corporate or governmental attempts to control will stifle innovation and entrepreneurialism and risk fragmentation.
</p><p>
The internet has proven to be a deeply transformative technology in the
developed world, as so it will be for the developing world. </p><p> It will be an economically important tool that will
provide a mechanism for the development of new business models,
previously unknown ways connecting people and communities, new
possibilities for the delivery of services, and a feedback loop for the
population. </p><p> In the midst of economic crisis, companies and
governments should not underestimate the formational impact of a
globally ubiquitous internet will have on the post-recession world.
Their agile competitors will not. </p></div>
<div class="bo">
Imagining the future of technology
<br>
</div>
<div class="footer">
Story from BBC NEWS:<br>
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/technology/8064579.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/technology/8064579.stm</a><br>
<br>
Published: 2009/05/26 09:02:02 GMT<br>
<br>
© BBC MMIX<br>
</div>
<div id="bbccom_printableversionsponsorship" class="bbccom_display_none">
<p>Print Sponsor</p>
<div></div>
</div>