[AfrICANN-discuss] IPv4's Last Day: What Will Happen When There Is Only IPv6?

[Dr Yassin Mshana]

Thank you!

It is good to know what is coming our way.

I was wondering about the implications of this to a common user.

Also, what is stopping the RIRs from requesting for IPv6 from this moment?

Y Mshana

2010/4/23 Anne-Rachel Inné <annerachel at gmail.com>

>
> http://www.enterprisenetworkingplanet.com/news/article.php/3878391/IPv4s+Last+Day:+What+Will+Happen+When+There+Is+Only+IPv6?.htm
>
> IPv4's Last Day: What Will Happen When There Is Only IPv6?
>
> April 23, 2010
> By Sean Michael Kerner
>
> TORONTO -- How will we know when IPv4 address space is all used up?
> And what will happen when that day comes?
>
> The modern Internet has been built using IPv4 (define), which provides
> for 4.3 billion address, a supply that could run dry within the next
> two years. Organizations that allocate IP address space like the
> American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN) have attempted to
> forecast when IPv4 address space will be gone, but it's not an exact
> science, and there is no precise date to mark on a calendar.
>
> At the ARIN XXV policy meetings held here this week, ARIN CIO Richard
> Jimmerson explained how the organization expects to know when the
> final IPv4 address is gone.
>
> "We will run out of IPv4 address space and the real difficult part is
> that there is no flag date. It's a real moving date based on demand
> and the amount of address space we can reclaim from organizations,"
> Jimmerson told InternetNews.com. "If things continue they way they
> have, ARIN will for the very first time, sometime between the middle
> and end of next year, receive a request for IPv4 address space that is
> justified and meets the policy. However, ARIN won't have the address
> space. So we'll have to say no for the very first time."
>
> Saying no to an IPv4 request will be shocking to some organizations,
> which is why ARIN is trying to get the word out now on the importance
> of moving to IPv6, Jimmerson said. The IPv6 (define) address space,
> the next generation of IP addressing, provides 340 trillion trillion
> trillion (34 x 10 to the 38th power) Internet addresses.
>
> The first time that ARIN declines an IPv4 address request won't
> necessarily be the date that IPv4 is completely exhausted.
>
> "It will be a different date for different sizes and types of
> organizations," Jimmerson said. "For instance there are some large
> national organizations that make address space requests of big blocks.
> They'll be the first ones to come in and we'll have to tell them we
> don't have as much as they want and they'll have to take a smaller
> block. That will be the first indication."
>
> Related Articles
> Blue Coat Targets IPv6 for the Enterprise
> Cisco Extends IPv6
> What's Next for IPv6 in the U.S.?
> For other organizations requesting smaller blocks of a few thousand
> addresses, IPv4 may be available for a longer period of time. But
> eventually, ARIN will reach the point when it won't be able to fulfill
> even small requests, Jimmerson said
>
> To date, the smallest address size allocation ARIN has issued is what
> is referred to as a /22 address block, which provides 1,024 IP
> addresses. Jimmerson noted that in the future, ARIN may well begin to
> offer smaller sized address blocks in the /24 range, which provide 256
> IPv4 addresses.
>
> Once the final IPv4 address space that ARIN has available is
> allocated, there will still be some extra IPv4 addresses that the
> organization will hold in reserve.
>
> "We have some special addresses that we'll hold onto, according to the
> policy that has been set," Jimmerson said.
>
> He explained that members of the policy community recognized a few
> years back that IPv4 address space was running out. They also
> recognized that there would soon be some organizations that would need
> to deploy new networks and services on IPv6 without the benefit of
> IPv4. As a result, the decision was made to retain some IPv4 address
> space so that new networks could put up their IPv4 DNS (define) and
> run protocol-translation services.
>
> "So the community set up a policy where we reserve a /10 of IPv4
> address space from our final /8 address allocation," Jimmerson said.
>
> A /8 block contains 16,777,214 addresses. The /10 contains 4 million
> addresses.
>
> "So in the future when we do run out of IPv4 we still have that /10
> set aside for organizations that just need a little bit for protocol
> translation or DNS," Jimmerson said.
>
> ARIN manages IP address space allocations for the U.S., Canada and the
> Caribbean region. ARIN is one of five global Regional Internet
> Registry (RIR) organizations that in turn receive their IP allocations
> from the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA). The other four
> RIRs are the RIPE Network Coordination Centre (RIPE NCC) for Europe,
> the Middle East and Central Asia, the Asia-Pacific Network Information
> Centre (APNIC) for Asia and the Pacific region, the Latin American and
> Caribbean Internet Addresses Registry (LACNIC) for Latin America and
> the African Network Information Centre (AfriNIC) for Africa.
>
> At this point, Jimmerson said that ARIN will still be making IPv4
> address space available as long as the supply from IANA holds out.
>
> "There is a global policy that states when the IANA free pool of IPv4
> addresses gets down to five /8s remaining they will automatically take
> and give one of the remaining /8s to each of the five RIRs," Jimmerson
> said.
>
> According to Jimmerson, there are now 20 /8s remaining in the IANA
> pool, which makes it likely that ARIN will get more IPv4 address
> space. As IPv4 address space nears exhaustion, ARIN has seen the
> demand slacken.
>
> "In the ARIN region demand for IPv4 may have leveled off and slowed
> down in the last few years," Jimmerson said. "We have a pretty
> saturated market with IPv4 address space in North America."
>
> Other areas of the world are still seeing high demand for IPv4 address
> space. In particular, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions are
> experiencing historically high levels of IPv4 address demand,
> Jimmerson said.
>
> "For only the second time ever, LACNIC, which services all of South
> and Central America, issued more IPv4 address space in the first
> quarter of 2010 than ARIN did," he said. "I don't think it has
> anything to do with IPv4 depletion -- it's just that the markets are
> picking up down there."
>
> Sean Michael Kerner is a senior editor at InternetNews.com, the news
> service of Internet.com, the network for technology professionals.
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